- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bearish (-1%)
- 52% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- 71% of total pending commands are to sell the Euro
- Upcoming events: Eurozone's (Core) CPI Flash Estimate y/y, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. US Employment Cost Index q/q, US Chicago PMI, US Pending Home Sales m/m, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate
The EZ flash GDP data release was not a trend changer in the EUR/USD currency pair. The Euro kept strengthening against the Greenback to touch the intraday high of 1.2450.
The Euro zone economy marked the fastest growth pace in a decade last year, preliminary report revealed, with sentiment remaining at the strong level, suggesting a solid start entering 2018. Eurostat stated that estimated growth domestic product in the bloc marked a 0.6% quarterly increase in three months to December 2017, which put yearly growth to 2.7% in the same period. Investment is expected to recover fully from post-crisis lows, to continue providing essential contribution to expansion over the coming year.
Busy session
This session includes fundamentals from both the Eurozone and the United States. The day will start with Eurozone's Flash Estimate for the (Core) Consumer Price Index during January being released at 1000GMT.
The United States will release data on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales at 1315GMT, 1330GMT, 1445GMT and 1500GMT, respectively. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish its statement and the Federal Funds Rate at 1900GMT.
EUR/USD at crossroads
EUR/USD spent the Tuesday morning in between the bounds of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs. A subsequent surge apparent mid-session allowed for a breakout of the former, the 55-hour moving average, the weekly PP and the monthly S2 in the 1.2400/45 area.At that point, the Euro lost its upside momentum and thus remained fluctuating within this territory. This trading day might mark another surge, as shown by technical indicators. This scenario is rather realistic, considering that the southern side is now protected by several notable barriers; meanwhile, the nearest resistance is formed by the distant weekly R1 at 1.2575.
On the other hand, the pair has lost momentum up near the monthly S2. This factor might likewise be an early indication of a fall that should halt at the 200-hour SMA circa 1.2340.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to trade sideways for the fifth consecutive session. It is expected that this period of consolidation is followed by a decline, as technical indicators are located at or near the overbought area.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is strongly bearish
The bearish market sentiment has decreased to 69% short positions.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 71% bearish and the US Dollar is 62% bullish.
OANDA traders remain bearish, as 58% of open positions are short (-6%). Saxo Bank clients are increasingly bearish on the pair with 63% short positions (+3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility