EUR/USD outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

FX pair rebounded last week by closing close to 1.16000.


Economic Calendar Analysis


Higher levels of volatility may be anticipated in the following weeks.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

EUR/USD on the 1-hour chart is consolidating after a sharp move up, holding above the 50 and 100 SMAs, which keeps the short-term tone mildly bullish. Price is sitting just above support near 1.1588–1.1580; holding this area keeps the upside structure intact, while losing it could lead toward 1.1545. To resume the uptrend, the pair needs to break back above 1.1650, which remains the key resistance blocking further gains.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

EUR/USD is currently consolidating within a corrective phase, showing a medium-term bearish bias while maintaining its long-term bullish structure. Price action is compressed between dynamic resistance at the 100-day SMA (1.1643) and horizontal support near 1.1514. While the recent cross of the 50-day SMA below the 100-day SMA signals weakening momentum, the primary trend remains technically intact as long as the pair holds above the 200-day SMA at 1.1443. A sustained break above 1.1643 is required to invalidate the immediate bearish pressure, whereas a failure to hold 1.1514 would likely trigger a test of the critical 1.1400 support zone.



Daily chart




Traders are long






EUR/USD, traders are slightly more long than short, with 51.42% long versus 48.58% short. The small increase in long positions (+2.84%) suggests growing bullish sentiment toward the USD against the euro. This near-even split indicates some market indecision but a mild tilt toward expecting EUR/USD to rise.

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