EUR/USD traders are short before the Fed

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The EUR/USD started a recovery, prior to properly touching the support of the 1.0800 mark. The low levels, which acted as support have been marked on the chart. The follow up recovery had reached above various technical levels including weekly simple pivot points and the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving average.

The move back up to previous levels was attributed to the fact that the markets are awaiting for the US Federal Reserve Rate Hike today at 19:00 GMT. In addition, note that the ECB is set to hike interest rates on Thursday at 13:15 GMT.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMIs might cause moves in the USD. The releases will occur at 13:15 GMT and 15:00 GMT.

Afterwards, at 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to hike its Federal Funds Rate. The central bank is expected by the markets to increase its interest rate from 4.50% up to 4.75%. The announcement will be followed by a press conference of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at 19:30 GMT.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is scheduled to hike its Main Refinancing Rate at 13:15 GMT. The Press Conference of the central bank is scheduled for 13:45 GMT.

On Friday, the US monthly employment data will be published at 13:30 GMT. The release will consist of Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD hourly chart

In the case of the Fed causing a surge of the pair, the 1.0900 level, weekly R1 simple pivot point and high level zone near 1.0920 might slow down the pair, before the 1.1000 level would be reached.

On the other hand, a decline of the Euro against the USD would look for support at 1.0870, 1.0840, 1.0820 and 1.0800. However, take into account that central bank policy decisions break through and ignore all technical levels.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair continues to pass one resistance level after another, as the pair has reached above the May 2022 high of 1.0790. Next resistance is the April high level at 1.0937.

Meanwhile, previous resistance zones and levels are being observed as turning into support.

Daily chart




Traders are short

Before the FOMC announcements, trader open positions were bearish, as 69% of open position volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 63% to sell the Euro against the USD.

On Tuesday, the sentiment was 63%, as some traders had closed their short positions during the decline. In the meantime, the pending orders were 59% to buy.

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