EUR/USD likely to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

During Friday's morning, the EUR/USD currency pair breached the support level formed by the weekly S3 at 1.1275.

Given, that the pair is pressured by the 55- and 100-hour moving averages, located circa 1.1290, it is expected, that some downside potential could prevail.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

The European Common Currency traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data release on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 5 pips or 0.04% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at 1.1295 the level against the Greenback.

Institute for Supply Management released the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data , which came out worse-than-expected of 55.1 compared with the forecast of 56.1.

According to the official release: "The NMI registered 55.1 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the May reading of 56.9 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. This is the index's lowest reading since July 2017, when it registered 55.1 percent. According to the NMI, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Although the non-manufacturing sector's growth rate dipped in June, the sector continues to reflect strength. The comments from the respondents reflect mixed sentiment about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty exists due to trade and tariffs."


US employment data set on focus



This week will end with the US Employment data sets – the Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change.

On the EUR/USD charts this event has caused moves in a range from 13.3 to 48 pips since February.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

Yesterday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded sideways, testing the support level formed by the weekly S3 at 1.1275. During Friday's morning, the pair breached the given support level.

Note, that the exchange rate is still pressured by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, located circa 1.1290. Thus, it is likely, that some downside potential could prevail in the short term. The rate could decline towards the monthly S1 at the 1.1220 mark.

It is unlikely, that bulls could prevail in the market, and the Euro could exceed the 1.1310 level against the Greenback due to resistance formed by the weekly S2 and the monthly PP.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate has made a decline in accordance with a large scale ascending pattern. Namely, it bounced off its upper trend line last week and has begun to move to the lower trend line of the pattern.

In addition, as it was described on Monday, the 200-day simple moving average provided resistance that pushed the rate down.

Note, that the rate is supported by the 100-day moving average at the 1.1264 mark.

Daily chart


Short for a week now

On Friday, 74% of all positions on Swiss Foreign Exchange were short.

Traders had stuck to their short positions for a whole week. In theory, traders, who are short since June 21 are in the green.

Meanwhile, today, trader set up pending orders in 100-pip range around the pair were almost neutral, as 53% of all orders were set to sell and 47% were to buy.

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