On Thursday morning the EUR/USD traded near the 1.1260, where it had surged after finding support at 1.1243 level, which stopped the rate from declining below the pivot points that are located near the 1.1240 level.
The rate was expected to trade sideways until it meets with the combined resistance of a channel down pattern and the 55-hour simple moving average.
The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the German Flash Manufacturing PMI release on Friday at 08:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 83 pips or 0.73%, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1300 area against the US Dollar.
The Markit released German Flash Manufacturing PMI data that came out lower-than-expected of 44.7, compared to forecast 48. Note, that the German Flash Services PMI was released at the same time with the Manufacturing PMI.
Key comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit: "The downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector has become more entrenched, with March's flash data showing accelerated declines in output, new orders and exports. Uncertainty towards Brexit and US-China trade relations, a slowdown in the car industry and generally softer global demand all continue to weigh heavily on the performance of the manufacturing sector, which is now registering the steepest rate of contraction since 2012."
Last week of the month is quiet
This is the last week of March and due to that reason it is expected to be quiet for macroeconomic fundamental data releases. However, there are a couple of notable events worth watching.On Thursday, the US Final GDP data will be published at 12:30 GMT. The event might cause moves on various currency exchange rates from ten to twenty base points.
On Friday, there will be two releases. First will be the UK Current Account publication at 09:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause a small reaction because still most attention of fundamental traders is on the Brexit events not macroeconomic data.
That is because no historical data can be used for forecasting a currency strength in a situation where the base of the underlying economy is about to change so drastically.
Afterwards, on the same day, the top release of the week will occur. At 12:30 GMT the Canadian GDP will be published. The Canadian events are the only ones, which have constantly created exchange rate adjustments of more than 40 pips.
For more information watch the week's calendar review on YouTube by clicking the link below.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On the hourly chart the rate was set to meet with the resistance of a descending channel and the 55-hour SMA.If this resistance holds its ground, it will push the rate down to make another attempt to pass through the strong technical support cluster near 1,240.00.
On the other hand, if the resistance levels are broken, the rate would surge up to the 100-hour simple moving average, which on Thursday morning was located at 1.1290.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be seen that the rate has stopped at the support cluster made up of the weekly and monthly pivot points near 1.1240.
Meanwhile, the daily chart reveals that the daily simple moving averages are far above it. Namely, the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages were located near the 1.1350 level. This fact signals that the rate has declined sharply and thus can be considered oversold.
Daily chart
On the Swiss Foreign Exchange the total open position volume is mostly short. Namely, since Tuesday 72% of volume was shorting the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were almost neutral. Namely, 54% of pending orders were set to sell.
The open positions remain firmly short. Although, the pending orders have been bouncing around from being 54% set to buy to the same percentage being set to sell.