- The Swiss traders are 72% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 60% to buy the pair
- On Friday the currency exchange rate was at a critical level
After reaching the 113.50 mark the USD/JPY began a decline , which by the middle of Monday's trading had passed all close by support levels. Due to that reason a decline was expected.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US PPI data better-than-expected of 0.1% compared with forecasted 0.00%. Note, that the US Core PPI was released at the same time with the US PPI.
The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
USD/JPY will be influenced by US data this week
Until Wednesday there are no notable data releases scheduled to occur that might impact any of the major pairs or gold.On Wednesday, the macroeconomic data releases will start at 09:30 GMT with the UK Consumer Price Index. The event is expected to cause at least a 20 base point move.
On the same day at 13:30 GMT the Canadian will publish the Consumer Price Index data sets. During the last half a year the data release has caused fluctuations of at least 40 pips.
Afterwards at 19:00 GMT the event of the week will take place. Namely, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be published. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the US central banks interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25%.
In theory the event is expected to cause a US Dollar surge, which would beat the top pairs downwards. This year the interest rate hikes have caused moves of at least 40 base points.
On Thursday, all attention will be paid to events in the UK. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales are expected to cause a move from 10 to 40 pips.
Afterwards, the Bank of England will announce their rate decision. The event has caused moves from 26 to 97 pips since May 2018.
On Friday the data releases will continue. During the morning hours, namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Current Account will be published. This event causes moves from 15 to 45 pips.
The week's data will end at 13:30 GMT. At that time the Canadian Retail Sales and GDP data will be published. Simultaneously the US Durable Goods data sets and Final GDP will be released.
The last event is too complex to explain it shortly. Instead, state your questions at the weekly Monday's economic calendar stream at 12:00 GMT.
The above mentioned data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on our YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short term daily review
During Friday's trading session, the US Dollar broke the support levels of the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages to end the trading day at the 113.34 mark. During Friday's morning hours, the rate was located between the 55-hour and the 100-hour SMAs to trade at the 113.46 mark.The US Dollar will depreciate against the Japanese Yen to trade sideways near the weekly pivot point at the 113.11 mark. Moreover, the 200-hour SMA should support the rate during the trading session on Monday.
However, the currency exchange rate could be supported by the 100-hour SMA to push the rate to trade up towards the weekly R1 at the 114.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be observed that the long term resistance line has held its ground once more.
As the rate is heading to the support of the 113.20 level, note that on the daily chart the added support comes from the 55-day SMA at that level.
Daily chart
Since the middle of Friday's trading session 72% of trader open positions were short on the USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders, stop losses, take profits and position open orders in the 100-pip range were set to buy the USD/JPY in 62% of cases.