- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bullish today
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 52% of cases
- Draghi testifies on Monday at 13:00
After reaching the 1.18 mark the EUR/USD pair was declining.The decline started after the rate met with the resistance of a medium term ascending pattern. The downwards movement is expected to meet with the lower trend line of the mentioned pattern and then resume the surge of the EUR/USD by once more reaching the 1.1790 leveL.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the United States Retail Sales data release on Friday the 14th at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 12 pips or 0.10% during a minute, right after the release.
The Census Bureau released US Retail Sales data that came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to forecasted 0.4%. Economists and traders closely monitor the US Retail sales because they provide an early read on consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the US economic activity.
The August's US Retail Sales 0.1% growth was the weakest growth in the past 6 months due to automobile and clothing sale decrease. That compares to the 0.5% gain from July and missed economists' forecast for 0.4 %, but remained up 6.6 %year-over-year.
Mario Draghi testifies today
There is a fundamental event for EUR/USD traders to monitor on Monday. The ECB President Mario Draghi is set to testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee at 13:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, prepare for Tuesday, as CB Consumer Confidence data release will most likely cause a small reaction in the financial markets. The data release is set to occur at 14:00 GMT, and it will be covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team.
Although, the most important day of the week for fundamentals will be Wednesday. The weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 14:30 GMT. The cover webinar for the release, will start as usual at 14:20 GMT.
Meanwhile, the most important data release will be the release of the US Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike their interest rate to 2.25% from 2.00% at 18:00 GMT. The event will be also covered by Dukascopy Analytics live.
EUR/USD short term review
The hourly chart shows that the currency exchange rate has met with a strong support cluster near the 1.1720 mark. Due to that reason the rate could reach for the resistance at 1.1790 before touching the lower trend line of the ascending medium size pattern that you can see on the chart.Most likely the currency rate will bounce off the resistance at 1.1790 and do another decline, during which it should again fall down to the 1.1720 level.
On the other hand, the rate could break the 1.1790 level and approach the 1.1830 level, where the first weekly resistance of the simple pivot points is located at.
Hourly Chart
The large scale ascending pattern, which was discovered on September 11, has pushed the currency rate higher. It can be expected that this pattern will continue to guide the currency exchange rate up to the 1.1900 mark.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains almost neutral. Namely, 52% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. All the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders were perfectly balanced 50/50 on Monday.
This means that trader were no longer expecting a decline of the EUR/USD. Most likely because the rate had already declined down to a significant support level. Meanwhile, the orders also show that the short term direction of the pair is unclear to the Dukascopy traders.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility