- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish today
- 57% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Draghi's speech at 13:00 GMT
As forecast, EUR/USD is again heading for the 1.1720 level. The rate found support in the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages and the lower trend line of a medium scale ascending pattern. Most likely the rate will break the resistance levels near 1.1720 and surge up to the 1.1790 mark, where next resistance is located at.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the United States Retail Sales data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 12 pips or 0.10% during a minute, right after the release.
The Census Bureau released US Retail Sales data that came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to forecasted 0.4%. Economists and traders closely monitor the US Retail sales because they provide an early read on consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the US economic activity.
The August's US Retail Sales 0.1% growth was the weakest growth in the past 6 months due to automobile and clothing sale decrease. That compares to the 0.5% gain from July and missed economists' forecast for 0.4 %, but remained up 6.6 %year-over-year.
Another Draghi's speech
The third week of the month, as it is usual, will be a quiet one for macroeconomics. Namely, there will be six notable events during the whole week that could be watched by traders.
First note the speeches of Mario Draghi. The first one will be the speech on Tuesday at 07:15 GMT. Another speech will occur on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT.
Second, on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the platform ten minutes before the event to watch the coverage. On the same day at 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near future, most likely, the rate will reach for the resistance levels near the 1.1720 level. At that level the weekly R1 is located at together with a Fibonacci retracement level. Afterwards, it is expected that the resistance will be broken and the rate will reach for the 1.1790 level, where next resistance is located at.However, the 1.1720 level might holds its ground. In that case the rate would once more retreat down to the 1.1700 mark and look for support in the 55 and 100-hour SMA and the lower trend line of a medium term ascending pattern.
Hourly Chart
The large scale ascending pattern, which was discovered on September 11, has pushed the currency rate higher. It can be expected that this pattern will continue to guide the currency exchange rate up to the 1.1900 mark.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains long. Namely, 56% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 57% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions by taking profits or shorting the EUR/USD.
In general, it can be noticed that the sentiment has not changed much since last week. Most notable is the fact that Dukascopy traders most likely are profiting from the recent surge. Meanwhile, they have set up sell orders to close their long positions and short the rate, if it ends its surge.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility