To my mind, the performance of the Loonie in the Q2 will depend mainly on what will happen to oil prices. What we have seen in the Q1 is that a lot of a rebound in the value of the Canadian Dollar has been driven by the rebound in oil prices.
For the second quarter I would imagine that Pound will probably come with sustained pressure, as it had a bit of retrieved risk of it due to the pressure of the Dollar.
To your mind, will the economy grow strong enough this year to push unemployment down and begin to pull inflation up to the Fed's 2% target? What performance do you expect to see from the US economy?For the first part of the year we would not expect the US economy to head into recession, which has been a fear as
To my mind, it is an important complement to monetary policy that has proposed a lot of stimulus to the economy.
I believe that in a first instance it will indeed be very negative: not as negative as for the UK itself, though. According to the research we have conducted within ING, we believe that there will be some demand shock in the UK and, as a result, depreciation of the Pound Sterling.
Recently, we saw disappointing CPI data for the Euro zone, as it fell for the first time since September 2015. In your opinion, what can be done to reverse this negative trend? Do you see extension of the QE program by the ECB in their next meeting?In terms of inflation, of course, a big part of downward pressure is due
For the City it could mean a loss of some businesses to Europe, if we do leave the EU.
We would broadly agree with that, as the UK cycle matures, growth is slowing towards its long term sustainable level of around 2%.
In my opinion, it is possible; however, that would require rather significant changes in policy making, and it will take quite a long time for these changes to start having effect.
China is attempting to shift away from an export-driven and investment-led economy to a more balanced consumption-oriented one. To achieve its goals and double GDP from 2010 levels, the Chinese leadership has set out on an extensive reform agenda. This includes further financial market liberalisation and state-owned enterprise, fiscal, and rural land reform. What will be the major risks for
RBNZ governor Wheeler has talked down the chances of interest rate cuts, dismissing the need for a knee-jerk reaction to a weaker inflation caused by slumping oil prices, and suggested that "some recent inflation indicators are encouraging". Do you believe that this confirms the bank's lack of urgency in responding to the weak inflation dynamic? What changes do you expect
Oil futures finished higher last Tuesday on hopes that members of the OPEC and producers outside the cartel may reach an agreement to cut output to stem the persistent slump in oil prices. However, as Iran attempts to rapidly increase exports and Saudi Arabia signals little willingness to cut production, does the OPEC's ability to boost prices remain existent?There has
I believe the statement is absolutely right, because the ability of the Bank of Canada to influence activity is very limited.
Our basic scenario is that we do not expect the Bank of Japan ease further its monetary policy.
We are seeing commodities trading at record lows at the moment, while analysts say that hopes for a near-term recovery are getting dimmer and dimmer. What is your outlook on the global commodity market?At the current moment, most of commodities are in bad shape mainly due to oversupply of just about everything on the market: there is too much of
Barclays sees the US economic expansion as likely being intact, and what we base it on is the US labour market as being the best indicator of where we are in the cycle.
Do you expect additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in 2016?Currently, we do not expect any further measures by the ECB. The monetary policy stance is very accommodative, and it will be so at least until the end of this year. The risks for this view are on the downside. Recent inflation rates have underlined this once again. Thus, we cannot
There are certainly risks to the downside from the global economy.
We can see that they have taken some precautionary measures at the moment, since Saudi Arabia does not want to run down the reserves at full speed.
How do you evaluate the performance of the Euro during the Q1 of 2016 and what will be the major drivers for the Euro throughout the same period?Our current outlook is that the Euro will come under renewed depreciation pressure during the first quarter of this year as the economy as well as inflation in the Euro zone continue to
What will be the main drivers for AUD during the 1st quarter of 2016?I believe that the AUD will continue to weaken on a broad basis in the first quarter of this year as lower commodity prices and a weaker Chinese economy continue to provide considerable headwinds for the Australian economy as well as inflation. And this in turn should keep
For the moment the SNB is still intervening on the markets to support it.
The Federal Reserve finally decided the economy was strong enough to handle the first increase in interest rates in nine years, but is the US economy really on the solid ground? What is your thought on the matter? Was the hike justified enough?To my mind, the US economy is on pretty solid ground at the moment. There certainly are risks,
If you look at the forecast from the SNB for 2016, I would not say that it is too optimistic and we are slightly below this projection.