AUD/TRY 2026: Technical Trends and Policy Divergence

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The AUD/TRY pair has been trending strongly upward since November 2025, rising from around 27.14 to a recent peak near 31.25. Currently, the price is consolidating just below this peak around 30.98, which looks more like a pause in the trend rather than a reversal. The recent price action forms a flag or pennant pattern, suggesting buyers are taking a breather before pushing the price higher. Support around 30.50, which used to be resistance, now provides a solid floor, keeping the overall trend bullish.

The fundamental reason behind this strength is the difference in monetary policies between Australia and Turkey. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been raising rates, recently bringing the cash rate to 3.85%, with expectations it could rise further to 4.10% by May 2026. Inflation in Australia remains above target, and this makes the Australian Dollar attractive as a "carry" currency.



In contrast, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is easing monetary policy, cutting its key rate to around 37- 38%. Despite these high nominal rates, inflation keeps real rates low, and the Turkish Lira continues to face structural pressure. As a result, the Lira tends to lose value against the strengthening Australian Dollar.

Overall, this is a policy trade: the AUD is supported by a hawkish central bank and a strong economy, while the TRY is weighed down by easing and structural weakness. In the short term, a move above the recent high of 31.25 is likely, and medium-term, the pair could reach the 32.50–33.00 range by the second quarter of 2026, assuming global risk sentiment and Chinese demand remain stable. The main risk would be a sudden global market downturn or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, which could weaken the AUD.
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