The global economy is recovering, but at a a gradual and uneven pace.
Talking about the potential for another rate cut, I would say that there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to the Greece, since we are not even in the process of negotiating the third bailout, which should start next week, in case everything goes according to the plan.
We do agree with the economists, since we are still looking for a cut in the overall rate to 50 basis points next week.
The Bank of England is clearly worried about the situation in Greece, but so far it is too early to tell whether the effects are strong enough to delay their current trajectory directly.
I believe that the risk of the default is growing bigger day by day. Hence, if the Greece will not reach an agreement with its creditors during the next week, the default is very likely to happen.
Actually, we believe the Riksbank will cut rates by another 10 basis points in their late December 2015 meeting, and perhaps also to act on further stimuli.
We would expect the Euro to be stocky in particularly, and to slowly, but gradually go higher in the third quarter of this year.
Certainly, the mentioned measures are not going to be enough to set the Japanese economy on the growth path.
I do think the mentioned forecasts are reasonable, however, I would be a little more cautious on the overseas outlook.
We would presume, if the Central banks cut once, they generally cut twice at a minimum.
I think prices for the precious metal will remain low for the near-term, and the rate hike by the Federal Reserve is definitely going to be an influencing driver.
Mining investment in Australia is currently shaving off over 1% from the GDP; this explains why the growth figures are so low.
I believe that the US economy is growing, since the slowdown of the first quarter has proved to be temporary and is already behind us.
I do not have any strong thoughts on the second quarter GDP estimate; at the same time I think the UK is in a relatively favorable position.
The ECB's communication has been crystal clear.
Even if growth rates in US oil were to pick up again, this would not provide enough additional supply to balance the market for the rest of the decade.
The largest areas currently suitable for Arabica production are the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais and regions in Central America.
I have to say that the Japanese economy performed horrible in the last quarter.
I think the issue is that as much as oil prices have stabilized, they are still obviously well below the level we saw this time last year.
We know that the budget estimates can be quite fallible.
First and foremost, I think the market is expecting a much stronger overprice as we are going forward.
There was a confluence of factors affecting Q1 GDP in addition to weather, such as disruptions from the West Coast ports dispute and impacts from lower energy prices and the stronger USD.
At the current moment, we are definitely seeing some negative impact from the very strong appreciation of the Swiss Franc and as mentioned previously, the weaker Manufacturing Price index numbers alongside the KOF leading indicator have been weakening.
It is clearly one of the most important issues that the growth number in the Q1 was surprisingly weak, but against that we have had very strong employment growth, while inflation remains low.