What are the return expectations for each EM asset class in 2016?Not very flash, we are afraid. We think equities EM give us around 3% returns next year, sovereign and hard currency bonds 0-2% (though with less volatility than equities), while local currency bonds will likely give returns between -2 to 0%, thanks to weakness in currencies.Will EM create a
Since November 2014, the People's Bank of China has cut its interest rate already six times. Should we expect another cut coming in the nearest future?We continue to expect monetary easing. Although monetary policy is becoming less stimulative on its own, easing nonetheless helps to ensure an accommodative environment in which fiscal measures and structural reforms can take root. We
The potential growth rate of the Japanese economy is probably very low at around 0.7% according to our estimates.
The current drop in oil prices suggests that the country's economy is currently facing a deep recession. Do you agree with this view? What reforms should be introduced to prevent the economy going deeper into crisis?Russia's well-known external challenges are likely to continue in the near term. As such, we think any 2016 recovery will be subdued at best, and
The world has been recently warned of a possible new financial crisis, particularly in emerging markets, when central banks start raising interest rates. An interest rate increase from the US Fed is likely to be a catalyst for the crisis in emerging markets, which most of economists believe will begin the next month. What is your view on the prospect
To my mind, there are several factors weighing on the competitiveness of UK goods.
It's doubtful that OPEC or Saudi Arabia will change their stance.
Potential growth for Australia in my view is mainly determined by the structural change away from the mining sector to other sectors.
Indeed we have seen that over the last few months, the manufacturing sector in particular saw some weakening on the back of the slowing growth in emerging countries.
There have been plenty of supply cuts across the commodity space, which should be bullish for prices. However, we are still seeing commodities trading at record lows, while analysts say that hopes for a near-term recovery are getting dimmer and dimmer. What is your outlook on the global commodity market? When will we actually hit the bottom?We think that at
The fall in China's producer prices is almost entirely due to the collapse in commodity prices that we have seen over the past eighteen months.
I would say that now it would be more reasonable.
The Canadian Dollar softened in response to the Fed Chair Janet Yellen's hint that a December rate hike could still takeplace; therefore, most of analysts remain bearish on the Loonie in the foreseeable future. What is your outlook for theCanadian Dollar for the end of this year and in a longer term?Through the rest of this year, I expect the
A global crude oil prices slump that is influencing Canada's economy is poised to continue having a damping effect for years to come as more companies reduce drilling. The downturn triggered the nation's recession in the first half of the year and is still set to substantially weigh on the country's health in future. What is your opinion, is Canadian
Consumer prices in Switzerland have fallen on an annual basis for most of the past four years. Can we say the Alpine country is in the deflation territory?Consumer prices hit a milestone last month with an annual price drop of 1.4%, which was the biggest decrease in more than five decades. Even after food and energy prices were stripped out,
That is right, despite clear indications of soft domestic demand and inflation far below target for some months to come.
We would agree with most analysts that the RBNZ will indeed cut its key rate again.
While we agree that membership of the EU has boosted the UK economy, we doubt that the outlook depends on the result of EU referendum.
Both Brent and WTI crude oil rose quite significantly.
I think the businesses are generally ready for such an increase, provided there is reassurance that the move will not be followed by a large number of similar ones in coming months.
I think that the recovery we had has come almost entirely from consumer spending.
At the end of August the Yen appreciated on back of growing global risk aversion.
We have been positive on gold for quite a while on back of very low interest rates and continuing jitters on equity markets, as well as on the geopolitical issues and diversification by the central banks.
My opinion is that the RBA has a difficult balancing act, conciliating a weak global economy and, in particular, a slowing economy in China.