I believe that during the summer driving season here, in the United States, we will most probably test $60 a barrel, especially if the Federal Reserve makes a decision on interest rates this summer.
Russia may enter the path of slow growth in the upcoming months, unless there are new external shocks, the Russian Central Bank stated on May 30. In your opinion, is it a reasonable statement or not? Why?To my mind, it could be so, because if we take a look at the seasonally adjusted indicators, then we can clearly see that
Not only did the worst NFP figure since September 2010 send rate hike expectations to virtually zero for June, but Yellen further diminished expectations for a rate hike in the immediate future in her speech on Monday.
While bookmakers' betting odds currently suggest that the UK will vote to remain in the EU by a significant margin in the referendum, the opinion polls have tended to be a lot closer, suggesting that the remain and leave camps are roughly neck and neck.
To put it simply, markets do not like uncertainty, even when news sources are of varying levels of credibility.
To my mind, that is a fairly reasonable assumption. The Fort McMurray wildfires are inherently a transitory shock that will impact the economy.
On the US side, the indicators were mixed last week, as housing data was solid, while durable goods orders came out weak. Besides, GDP posted a lukewarm gain of 0.8%, making the Fed's Chair Yellen keep the door open to a June rate hike. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada kept rates at 0.50%. Which of the abovementioned fundamentals
I would not agree with this point of view. We just went through one of the longest bear markets for about six years long, with negative interest rates in about 35% of the countries worldwide which is a part of gold prices.
I do not think it will continue at the pace that we saw in the Q1, because if we had big impact from constructions, it seems to be seasonal.
At this stance, we do expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and we anticipate another rate hike of another 25 basis points in December this year.
The most effective option for the Japanese economy is the suspending the consumption tax increase (scheduled for April, 2017)
Overall, Argentina is not the economy we follow that closely; however, as concerns Brazil, we have seen quite a large rally in Brazilian assets on expectations that Rousseff is going to be impeached.
I do not think that oil is going to fall below $30 per barrel, that would be too bearish; however, I would not be surprised to see some pullbacks in prices, perhaps to below $40.
The fundamentals in silver are looking a little bit better and there are a lot of production cutbacks coming in.
The US economy has slowed down a lot in the Q4 of 2015 and in the Q1 of 2016, and I do not expect much rebound in the Q2
Recently, the World Bank revised downwards its forecast for Russia's economic growth for the year 2016, predicting the Russian economy will shrink by 1.9% instead of the 0.7% due to weaker oil market. In your opinion, is there a possibility that the Russian economic growth this year will surpass these expectations and will register a better result?To my mind, it
Over the course of the next quarter we see the Euro trading lower, down to around 1.02-1.03 against the US Dollar.
At the current moment, the RBNZ is highly concerned in particular with respect to the dairy sector, as dairy prices continue to tumble.
With uncertainties over the EU referendum and global economy, the next quarter will be a challenging one for the financial services sector. Banks in particular are highlighting what a difficult position they find themselves in. Analysts believe that these uncertainties seem sure to last until at least June 23, when the UK population will vote on whether to stay in
I think the more extreme versions of the "secular stagnation" seem do not apply to the UK. We still have some economic growth.
I think one should compare the Swiss Franc with the Euro and definitely look at this pair's exchange rate, because it is the one which matters from the monetary policy perspective.
To my mind, the performance of the Loonie in the Q2 will depend mainly on what will happen to oil prices. What we have seen in the Q1 is that a lot of a rebound in the value of the Canadian Dollar has been driven by the rebound in oil prices.
For the second quarter I would imagine that Pound will probably come with sustained pressure, as it had a bit of retrieved risk of it due to the pressure of the Dollar.
To your mind, will the economy grow strong enough this year to push unemployment down and begin to pull inflation up to the Fed's 2% target? What performance do you expect to see from the US economy?For the first part of the year we would not expect the US economy to head into recession, which has been a fear as