EUR/USD. Against the euro are weak national statistics, a strong contrast between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed, and the likelihood of an escalation of the trade conflict between the EU and the US. Turkey's influence on the Euro-exchange rate is explained by fears that the economic crisis can very quickly spread from Ankara to the key countries of the currency bloc. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
USD/JPY. The Fed's plans are unlikely to change, and the yield of US bonds is growing. In particular, the yield of Treasury 10-year Treasuries again approaches 3%. No less important factor in the demand for the dollar, and in parallel the decline in interest in the yen, were yesterday's reports that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Vice Premier of the State Council Liu He held private talks in an effort to find ways to resume negotiations between the countries. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
USD/JPY. The US currency retains its leading position, not allowing the defensive yen to seize the growth initiative. The very actual risk of default will continue to stimulate high rates of capital outflow, which at any moment can lead to yet another wave of sales of the Turkish currency. I expect the growth of the currency pair on the release of this news.
USD/CAD. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in inventories in the week ending at 5.8 million barrels. Analysts on the survey of S & P Global Platts expected a decline of 3.4 million barrels. On the eve of the American Petroleum Institute, the API reported a 5.2 million barrels reduction in inventories. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
USD/JPY. The protocol will confirm the commitment of the Fed to the policy of high interest rates, which is more than logical given the high economic growth rate of the US, as well as the 2% target for inflation achieved. In addition, this week will hold a conference of the Fed in Jackson Hole, which will be attended by the leaders of the leading central banks. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
USD/CAD. The demand for oil, observed in recent days, is more connected with the local news background. At the close of last week, information appeared on the market about the imminent resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
NZD/USD. Business optimism in New Zealand has fallen to a minimum since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008: 45% of respondents expect a deterioration in the general business environment during the year. Companies' assessment of their own prospects showed that only 4% of respondents expect improvement of the situation - the lowest value since May 2009 against. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
NZD/USD. New Zealand is the largest exporter of dried milk to China and the uncertainty of the prospects for the world economy due to the aggravation of the trade conflict between China and the United States has a negative impact on business throughout the country. I expect a decline in the currency pair when this news is released.
AUD/USD. After the publication of strong data on inflation, employment growth may prove more than enough for the Reserve Bank to consider the issue of the timing of raising rates. I expect the growth of the currency pair on the release of this news.