Last year I've posted my prediction in the Technical Analysis contest about USD/CAD, and at that time I said that USD/CAD is on the verge for a big upside movement. You can check out my prediction here: USD/CAD Resuming the Uptrend. But I'm going to re-post it here one more time:

"The current USDCAD up trend has already begin to break upwards after 4 months of consolidation. The up drift from the last year low 0.9630 to 1.0610 high, has took shape of and 5 wedge rally within an upward channel. From the first picture we can see how each wave was constituted of 3 wave of minor degree which can be used as a map for future price action. But that up move constitute only the wave I of larger degree, we still have to complete a five wave sequence to conform the Elliott Wave theory.

The correction that stared from the 1.0610 high dropped in a 3 wave formation, an ABC correction, forming the second wave of larger degree (wave nr II).


  • Figure1. USD/CAD Daily chart with Elliot Wave count.
From 1.0180 we begin to develop the wave III of larger degree which is formed by another five wave of lesser degree as wave III is an impulsive wave, or motive wave, it must conform the Elliot wave theory of five wave sequence. Figure 2 offer us a larger view on the long term trend on USD/CAD, and it can be seen that since 2008 USD/CAD was trending strong to the downside only recently the momentum started to pick up.

  • Figure 2. USD/CAD Weekly chart.
There is a high change that USD/CAD is in the earlier stage of a new trend as we can see in Figure 1 the impulsive wave are to the upside. The only obstacle is the 1.0650 strong resistance zone, although we recently broke above it, we still need a weekly close above for the up trend to resume. Based on Elliot Wave count and projections we should expect in the coming weeks further upside movement and an exchange rate of at least 1.0870."

It seems I was right about this pair and once we broke above 1.0660 momentum started to pick up. But I didn't take in consideration that it will go too fast to the upside, we have moved beyond our target . the only way we can see our target reach is to break below 1.1000 and close below that level.

Best regards,
Daytrader21.
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