Gold trades above 1,250 mark

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are neutral
  • 72% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,246.45
  • Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Evans's Speech, FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
Not only did the yellow metal started Monday's trading session higher, it also has managed to surge above the 1,250 mark and break the resistance, which kept it lower during the past three trading sessions. The reason for that was the fact that Donald Trump could not get his healthcare bill passed in the US on Friday, which indicates that the US economic stimulus might not come. Due to that the Greenback fell.

Orders for US-manufactured long-lasting goods rose more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The US Department of Commerce reported that orders for durable goods advanced 1.7% in February, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 2.3% and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders for US-manufactured durable goods climbed 0.4%, compared to the previous month's reading of 0.0%. In the meantime, market analysts anticipated a bigger gain of 0.5% during the reported period. However, the following rise marked the sixth straight monthly increase in orders for core durable goods.

Analysts suggest that businesses will improve even more if US lawmakers succeed in lowering corporate taxes and reducing regulations. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped 0.1%, following January's revised climb of 0.1% and falling behind expectations for a 0.5% increase. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating GDP, advanced 1.0% last month. Data also showed that orders for civilian aircraft rose 47.6%, compared to a 83.3% surge in the prior month. Boeing reported it received 43 orders for aircraft in February, up from the previous month's 26.

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Upcoming events: Fed speeches

On Monday there are two notable fundamental events scheduled to occur. Both of them are speeches by members of the FOMC. First of all at 18:15 GMT FOMC member Evans will speak publicly. Secondly, FOMC member Kaplan will give a speech at 23:30 GMT.



Gold jumps on Monday

Daily chart: Not only has the yellow metal begun Monday's trading session more than 400 base points higher than the previous closing price, but also it has managed to surge additional 1250 points during the early hours of the trading session. Moreover, recently the bullion began to pass the resistance put up by the 200-day SMA, which was located at the 1,257.98 level. If that level is passed, the commodity price is most likely going to continue the surge up to the weekly R2, which is located at the 1,267.28 level.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: On the hourly chart from a technical perspective the way is free for the bullion to jump to the before mentioned resistance level. The only thing, which might hinder a surge is the upper Bollinger band. However, the Bollinger band is more likely to bend, as it would only slow down an increase of the commodity price.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders remain neutral

SWFX trader open positions remain neutral, regarding the bullion. However, 72% of trader set up orders are to buy the yellow metal.

OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 60.37% long on Monday, compared to 59.20% previously. However, traders of SAXO bank have decreased the percentage of long positions, as 55.86% of open positions are long, compared to 57.38% on Friday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being at 1,300 by July

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 27 and March 27 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in June. Generally, 53% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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