- SWFX traders are 54% bullish
- 56% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,223.54
- Upcoming Events: US PPI; Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech; FOMC Member's Kaplan's speech
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined to an almost 43-year low, official figure revealed on Thursday. Last week's drop in claims was driven by tightening labor market, which is likely to prompt wage growth. According to the US Department of Labor, national jobless claims declined 12,000, to 234,000, during the week ending February 4 from the preceding week's upwardly revised 246,000. Meanwhile, economists anticipated a slighter deceleration to 250,000 during the reported period. Filings have been below 300,000 for 101 straight weeks — the longest streak since 1973.
In the meantime, the less volatile four-week moving average of initial claims dropped 3,750 to 244,250, the lowest level since November. Furthermore, continuing claims increased 15,000 to 2.08 million during the week ended January 28, while their four-week moving average fell 3,750 to 2.08 million. These claims, reported with a one-week delay, reflect the number of people already collecting unemployment benefits. Other data released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories climbed 1% in December, following a similar gain in November. Excluding automobiles, wholesale stocks grew 0.9% in December. The change in private inventories contributed 1% to GDP growth in the final quarter of 2016.
Upcoming events: Data releases on Tuesday
On Valentine's Day, statisticians are set to release a lot of macroeconomic data. In the second half of Tuesday's trading session information from the US will be coming out. At 13:30 GMT US PPI data will be published. Later in the day members from the Federal reserve are set to speak, as at 15:00 GMT Janet Yellen will give a speech and at 18:00 GMT FOMC Member Kaplan will speak. Most attention will be paid to Janet Yellen, as the loss of volatility caused by the expectations of her speech can already be seen across the board.
Gold recoups losses on Tuesday morning
Daily chart: The yellow metal was in a rebound on Tuesday morning, as it had found support during the late hours of Monday's trading session near the 1,220 level. The move was expected, and occurred exactly as forecasted. However, the future movements of the bullion is rather unclear due to a fundamental factor, as chairwoman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, is set to speak in the second half of Tuesday's trading session. Her comments are likely to drive the bullion's prices, as she comments on US monetary policy.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that there is an almost rectangular channel, which has formed in the trading sessions since February 9. The hourly chart shows that until the incoming speech the bullion is likely to surge up to the levels near the 1,230 mark. Afterwards, in accordance with the pattern, the bullion should fall. If that hypothesis is combined with the speech of Janet Yellen, it is possible that her comments will strengthen the US Dollar.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders remain bullish
OANDA Gold traders have a continued to decrease their bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 64% bullish on Monday, compared to the 80% a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have decreased their bullish outlook, regarding the yellow metal, as 60.02% of open positions are bullish, compared to 62.99% yesterday.