Gold breaks critical area

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bullish
  • 61% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,219.32
  • Upcoming Events: Low impact data
Gold opened optimistic and bullish on Monday by overstepping the 38.20% Fibonacci level of the latest fall at 1,219.20, which it had battled for a few times already. XAU/USD opened green and dashed through the area strengthened by the 100-day SMA and upper Bollinger Band, giving out strong bullish signals for the trading session. While we expect some consolidation of the broken area which could lead to a limited rally today, the next upside target lies at 1,233.81, the weekly R1.

US companies created more jobs than expected last month, following the disappointing December figure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose 227,000 in January, compared with the preceding month's upwardly revised 157,000, while market analysts anticipated an increase to 170,000 in the reported month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 4.8% last month, up from December's reading of 4.7%. Friday's data also showed that average hourly earnings grew 0.1% in January, following the prior month's downwardly revised 0.2% and falling behind the 0.3% rise market forecast. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates. However, policymakers maintained their projection of three hikes in 2017.

Separately, the Institute of Supply Management reported its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 56.5 in January from the preceding month's 57.2, whereas analysts penciled in a slight decrease to 57.0 points. Overall, the slight decrease in the headline Index was mainly driven by the weaker New Orders Index, which dropped to 58.6 from 60.7 in the previous month; however, order backlogs held on the same level. Moreover, the ISM said the Employment Index advanced to 54.7, while the Price Index surged to 59.0 from 56.0, representing an increase in inflationary pressures.

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Upcoming events: No high impact data

There are no high impact data releases that could significantly shake up markets on Monday. A set of low impact data, such as the Sentix investor confidence gauge in the Euro zone, as well as US labor market conditions, which come out at 9:30 GMT and 15:00 GMT respectively could put some pressures, but are unlikely to lead to a shake in markets.



Bullion shows no signs of weakness

Bullion shows no signs of weakness Daily chart: During the early hours of Friday's trading session the yellow metal remained near the 1,215 mark, as it struggled to find support after the previous fall. Although the bullion traded above the weekly R1, which is located at 1,213.16, it could be easily seen that the level of significance was rather ignored by the metal, as it had reached below it. Actually the commodity price did not fall, because it encountered the lower trend line of a medium term ascending channel. Due to this factor and the general upwards aimed trend, it is likely that the bullion will rally and attempt to break the resistance cluster near the 1,220 level.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the reversal of the yellow metal is not occurring due to a lone trend line combined with the weekly R1. In addition the 55-hour SMA is providing significant support o the bullion. However, for some reason the usually week 20-hour SMA is managing to provide enough resistance to stop all of the commodity price surge attempts.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Supply and demand almost in balance for SWFX traders

Traders remain almost neutral on the metal, as 51% of open positions are short on Monday. Meanwhile, 61% of trader set up orders are to buy the bullion.

OANDA traders maintain their bullish outlook on the bullion, as open positions were 67.22% bullish on Monday. Traders of SAXO bank also remain long, as 60% of open positions are bullish.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,233 in May

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between January 6 and February 6 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,233 in early April. Generally, 50% (+3%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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