- SWFX traders are 51% bullish
- 63% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,213.46
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; FOMC Member Evans' Speech; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US Factory Orders
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 246,000 in the week ending January 28 from the preceding week's upwardly revised 260,000, while analysts anticipated a slighter decline to 251,000. The result marked 100 weeks below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. At the Federal Reserve's last meeting, policymakers kept its benchmark overnight rate unchanged in a range of 0.50% to 0.75%. Thursday's data also showed that the four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends, advanced 2,250 to 248,000 last week. Furthermore, continuing claims declined 39,000 to 2.06 million during the week ended January 21, while their four-week moving average fell 13,000 to 2.08 million.
Last week's claims report has no impact on the NFP data for January, set for release on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to show a gain of 170,000 jobs, following a sluggish December, when private companies created just 156,000 new jobs, missing the 175,000 gain forecast. Moreover, the unemployment rate is excepted to remain unchanged at 4.7% in January. Wage growth is likely to boost consumer spending and support economic growth in the Q1 of 2017.
Upcoming events: Loads of US data
During Friday's trading session the financial markets will be affected by the fundamental data releases occurring in the US. First a data package will be out at 13:30 GMT. The package will consist of US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The Dukascopy research team will cover this data release on the live webinar. In addition, at 14:15 GMT FOMC member Evans is set to give a speech. Last but not least at 15:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and US Factory Orders will be out.
XAU/USD back below 1,215
Daily chart: During the early hours of Friday's trading session the yellow metal remained near the 1,215 mark, as it struggled to find support after the previous fall. Although the bullion traded above the weekly R1, which is located at 1,213.16, it could be easily seen that the level of significance was rather ignored by the metal, as it had reached below it. Actually the commodity price did not fall, because it encountered the lower trend line of a medium term ascending channel. Due to this factor and the general upwards aimed trend, it is likely that the bullion will rally and attempt to break the resistance cluster near the 1,220 level.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the reversal of the yellow metal is not occurring due to a lone trend line combined with the weekly R1. In addition the 55-hour SMA is providing significant support o the bullion. However, for some reason the usually week 20-hour SMA is managing to provide enough resistance to stop all of the commodity price surge attempts.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders become slightly bearish
OANDA Gold traders have a bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 70% bullish on Friday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 65.02% of open positions are bullish.