Gold near 1,210 on Wednesday

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 52% bullish
  • 63% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,209.36
  • Upcoming Events: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC Statement; US Federal Funds Rate
The yellow metal remained rather unchanged during Wednesday's early hours. As the commodity price failed more than once to pass the resistance put up by the weekly R1, which is located at 1,213.16, it is most likely that the bullion will do a short term retreat down to the lower trend line of a medium term ascending channel. In the meantime, from a fundamental perspective, market participants might be consolidating their positions before the information set to be incoming from the Federal Reserve later in the day.

Consumer spending in the United Sates advanced more than expected last month as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and services amid increasing wages. On Monday, the Commerce Department reported consumer spending rose 0.5% in December, following the preceding month's 0.2% rise and surpassing a 0.4% increase forecast. The stronger than expected figure pointed to solid domestic demand that is expected to boost economic growth in early 2017. Data showed purchases of manufactured durable goods climbed 1.4% last month, while consumer spending on services jumped 0.4%. Meanwhile, personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in December after rising 0.1% in the prior month. However, economists expected household income to climb 0.4%. Salaries and wages grew 0.4% in December after dropping 0.1% in November. For all of 2016, income climbed 3.5% after increasing 4.4% in 2015.

Separately, the Commerce Department said the PCE Price Index advanced 0.2% in December, following November's 0.1% increase. During the twelve-month period ending December, the Index rose 1.6%, the largest increase since September 2014, up from the previous month's 1.4% rise. Excluding volatile items, the Core PCE Index grew 0.1% after being unchanged in November, in line with analysts' expectations.

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Upcoming events: US data and FOMC

Wednesday is set to be a busy day for fundamentals in the US, as various data releases are scheduled for today. At 13:15 GMT the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published. Afterwards, at 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be out. Last but most important data will come at 19:00 GMT. At that time the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate will be released to the public.



Gold retreats on Wednesday

Daily chart: After reaching the 1,215 mark during Tuesday's trading session, the yellow metal began a retreat, which continued to last into Wednesday's trading. From a technical perspective, the yellow metal has no support until the level of 1,196.86 on the daily chart. Due to that and the fact that it previously attempted to break through the weekly R1 at 1,213.16 more than once before the retreat, it can be assumed that the bullion is set to lose value by the end of the day, in the process retreating to the weekly PP.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the metal might fall as low as 1,203 during today's trading session. The reason for that is that during the morning hours of Wednesday's trading session the bullion passed the 20-day SMA, and the closes support cluster was located at the level mentioned before.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders become slightly bullish

Traders have become slightly bullish, as 52% of trader open positions are long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 63% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have a bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 68% bullish on Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 66.98% of open positions are bullish.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,250 in May

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between January 1 and February 1 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,250 in early April. Generally, 45% of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 37% of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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