Gold between two retracements

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 52% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • 61% of pending commands were to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,203.74
  • Upcoming Fundamentals: Trump's speech
Following an exit from the channel up pattern that led Gold out of its senior channel, XAU/USD inched up again and it appears that the bottom boundary of the junior broken channel will be up for tests now. The area is strengthened by the daily R1 at 1,211.89 and will most likely send the rate packing when the retracement is complete. Ultimately, we would look for a correction of the senior channel violation as well, but it is now left second on the time table.

An important indicator of the euro area's economic health stayed unchanged in June. The 19-country Markit Composite PMI, a forwardlooking indicator tracking development in the euro area's manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 53.1 points during the sixth month of the year, same as in May, when it rebounded from a 15-month trough. Meanwhile, conditions in the euro-zone services sector eased as the gauge tracking development in the area booked 52.8 points, down from 53.3 snatched in May. A level below 50.0 signals a deterioration from the previous month, while above 50.0 signals an increase. Among major euro area countries, France was once again the weakest performer, with PMIs pointing to a contraction in economic output. Indicators for Germany, Italy and Spain pointed to solid expansion. Data overall signaled a continued pick-up in employ

Meanwhile, the New Orders Index dropped to 3.1, following the preceding month's 10.1 points, whereas the Shipments Index remained unchanged at 7.3, pointing to robust shipment growth. In addition, the Delivery Time Index and the Unfilled Orders Index advanced to -2.5 and -1.7 in January, respectively. The Inventories Index jumped 16 points to 2.5, indicating the first increase in inventory level since the middle of 2015. The Future Business Conditions Index held steady at 49.7 in January, after rising sharply in the wake of Trump's victory in the US presidential election. The Prices Paid Index surged 14 points to 36.1, reaching its highest level since 2014 and pointing to increasing inflation.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: Trump's speech

The single fundamental event on the economic calendar could come with some volatility in the currency markets as the world will be watching President-Elect Donald Trump's speech and seeking some indications on foreign and domestic policy.



Decent downside risks for Gold

Daily chart:: Gold gained some pips to the UD Dollar, following a volatile session the day before, when it posted what appears to be a high wave candle, which expresses confusion in the market. The pair is most likely to be targeting 1,211.87/1,213.17 – an area which corresponds to the bottom broken trend-line of the junior channel and the weekly R1, where the gains will be cut for today's session. There is still risk on the downside as well, due to the fact that a senior broken channel might also require consolidation. In a falling case scenario, 1,184.64/1,182.34 is most likely to make bulls take over after 1,191.73 is tested.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart, however, shows that the retracement of the broken trend-line might already be completed and a dip is indeed up next. The pair almost touched the channel boundary and is now sliding through the 55 and 100 hour SMAs, which have just sent a severely bearish signal in a crossover. The 1,205.13 area will be attempted next and will open the way to 1,200.07, the 200-hour SMA in case broken. The projection is also consistent with the rising wedge the pair has formed recently.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Traders gradually reduce bullishness

Traders remain slightly bullish regarding the bullion, as 52% of open SWFX trader positions are long on Friday. Meanwhile, 61% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have maintained their optimistic outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 71% bullish on Friday, same as on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 63.79% of open positions are bullish.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,277 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between December 20 and January 20 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,277 in early April. Generally, 43% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 28% (-6%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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