Gold opens green, but long-term risk still skewed down

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 60% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • Pending orders optimistic with 68% to buy
  • Gold opened Thursday's session at 1,173.03
  • Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Euro zone minimal bid rate; ECB press conference; US unemployment claims
Gold confirmed the significance of the 1,169.10 level once again with a break above the upper trend-line of the three-week channel. XAU/USD tested the resistance at 1,178.21 Thursday morning, but is yet to confirm a breakout with a close above. Levels above, however, are out of reach, meaning that just an extremely negative US unemployment claim data would be able to push Gold as high. The broken channel trend-line now serves as support at 1,170.44 with more risk at 1,158.87, inside of the channel.

The United States' services sector activity hit its one-year high last month, official figures revealed on Monday. The Institute of Supply Management reported its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 57.2 in November from the previous month's 54.8 points. The November figure was the highest since October 2015 and marked the 82nd straight month of growth in the sector, while analysts anticipated the Index to come in at 55.3 in the reported month. Any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than twothirds of the US economy. Furthermore, the Employment Index climbed to 58.2 from October's 53.1 points, showing that hiring rose at a much faster pace in November. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 61.7 from 57.7 in October, while the New Orders Index dropped to 57.0 from 57.7 and the Prices Index came in at 56.3, losing 0.3 points during November. The majority of respondents expressed a positive view of the economy. Earlier, Markit's final Services PMI for the US came in at 54.6, slightly below the 54.8 point forecast. As a result, the EUR/USD was unchanged at 1.0728, while the GBP/USD fell to 1.2712 from 1.2716 from ahead of the release and the USD/JPY rose from 114.37 to 114.62.

The number of homes that went under contract inched higher in October, a sign the housing market could be plateauing in the final months of the year. The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, which tracks contract signings for previously owned homes, edged up 0.1% from a downwardly revised September reading to a seasonally adjusted 110.0. Sales typically close within a month or two of signing. It is essential to note that while demand for housing is high, supply still continues to weaken across much of the nation and is well below 2015 levels. While homebuilders ramped up production in October, overall construction is still well below historical norms. Builders cite the high costs of land, labor and regulation as barriers to increased volume.

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Upcoming fundamentals: Euro zone minimal bid rate; ECB press conference; US unemployment claims

The Bullion can expect little fundamental market movers on Thursday, with the single one being the US unemployment claims at 13:30 GMT, which could spill some uncertainty into the US currency market.



Gold jumps out the monthly channel

Daily chart: After respecting the 1,169.10 area for three consecutive sessions, the Bullion opened green with a takeoff from the month-long channel upper boundary. Thursday morning upward movements were cut by the 1,178.21 weekly Pivot Point, and in case no significant market movers come into play, XAU/USD might remain squeezed in between the aforementioned levels. A surge above the Pivot Point has little to stick on to, as the next level of significance lies at 1,195.73, while movements below the four-day trading range are likely to be limited by 1158.87.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: Following a break out of the channel on Wednesday, XAU/USD attempted a retracement but failed to go as low, setting 1,173.03 as support. A surge is to be expected based on several technical aspects, such as the 55-hour and 100-hour SMA crossover that lies just beneath current movements, and the bullish nature of the pattern break. Resistance now lies at 1,177.55 with more risk at 1,178.21 and 1,178.50. The pair is also sketching a channel in the making which would point directional risk up.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX sentiment stays the same

SWFX trader sentiment remained the same on Thursday, as open positions were still 60% long, identically to all of the readings this week. Additionally, set up orders remain bullish reflecting in 68% long pending commands.

The optimistic OANDA Gold traders have found the Bullion less attractive on Thursday, as 77.85 of open positions were long, compared to 84.44% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have mitigated their bullish stance, as Wednesday showed 62.74% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 67.16% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,266 by March

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between November 8 and December 8 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,266 in early March. Generally, 43% (+1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 35% (-3%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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