- 45% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Gold opened Tuesday's session at 1337.14
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US CB Consumer Confidence; FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
According to the Bureau of Statistics release, Australia's official unemployment rate has reached 5.6%, despite the forecasts of the 3,900 jobs loss last month. Australian employment, in turn, declined for the first time in seven months, although underlying that trend remains favorable as full-time jobs rebounded. The economy shed 3,900 jobs in August, compared with a revised gain of 25,300 in July. Also, the good news is that full-time employment added 11,500, while July's drop was revised to 43,400. Overall, Australia's labour market remains in decent health despite strong concerns about the economy's ability to hold a possible downturn following the end of the mining investment boom. Consistent jobs creation has painted a favorable picture of Australia's economy, which recently recorded its 21st consecutive quarter of economic expansion. Taking into account all the data as well as interest rates, employment should continue its gradual upward revision in the near future.
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell sharply last week, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report, US crude stocks dropped 6.2 million barrels to a total of 504.6 million in the week ended September 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 0.6 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a rise of 3.2 million barrels in the reported week. The data also showed gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 567,000 barrel fall, whereas distillate stocks added 2.2 million barrels, compared to the 250,000 increase forecast. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.5 million drop in US crude oil inventories for the same week, surpassing the 3.4 million barrel fall market forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: US CB Consumer Confidence
After three non-volatile trading sessions, it is hard to tell whether the US CB Consumer Confidence announcement is will have enough impact to induce some volatility at 14:00 GMT Tuesday Afternoon. A series of low impact data releases on the United States' economy, such as Flash Services PMI and Richmond Manufacturing Index could accumulate surprise waves to add some more uncertainty to the markets.
XAU/USD in battle with 1333.00
Daily chart: Following a non-volatile trading session on Monday, Gold managed to tap at the top trend-line of the three-month descending triangle at 1339.83. XAU/USD is currently approaching 1332.22, the 55-day SMA which will then shift the risk to 1329.53 if broken. The senior wedge bottom trend-line is likely to limit the weakness at 1317.97, which will possibly serve as a starting point for a reversal when the pair embarks to move to the top trend-line of the wedge. On the other hand, the triangle suggests that the wedge might be mature enough to break soon, suggesting that a violation of 1317.97 is feasible and could open the way to 1302.08, the bottom trend-line of the triangle.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The short-term trend turned slightly bearish following the attempt at the triangle top trend-line, requesting some more proof, such as a close below 1332.39, the triangle support level. A bearish signal by the 20-hour and 55-hour SMA suggests that this might just happen in case demand pressures lose the battle at 1333.98, where the 100-hour SMA lies. A break below 1332.39 would extend the weakness towards 1329.54, putting the latest rally midpoint and monthly Pivot Point confluence at 1325.77 into perspective. A breach of the 1340.41 level would, however, result in a revisit of the senior wedge, which would elevate the rate to the top trend-line.
Hourly chart
Traders show mixed expectations on the bullion
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are majorly bullish with respect to the bullion, meaning that 63.71% of all positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 55.23% of all positions being held by bulls.