- 44% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Gold opened at 1336.05 on Monday
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US New Home Sales, BOJ Kuroda's Speech
Consumer prices in the United States rose more than expected last month, official data revealed on Friday. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.2% month-over-month in August, compared to the preceding month's reading of 0.0%, while market analysts anticipated a slighter acceleration to 0.1% during the reported month. On an annual basis, the CPI increased 1.1%, up from July's 0.8%. The so-called core CPI that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy, advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis in August after rising 0.1% in July, whereas economic desks expected the core inflation to grow 0.2% last month. On a yearly basis, the indicator climbed 2.3% during the reported period, slightly up from July's 2.2% reading. The modest rise in inflation last month is likely to be welcomed by the Federal Reserve at its meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. However, it is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold amid weak retail sales, industrial production and job growth. Within the headline CPI basket, the price of gasoline dropped 0.9% last month, compared to July's 4.7% fall. Food prices were unchanged, whereas the cost of food consumed at home decreased for the 4th consecutive month.
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell sharply last week, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report, US crude stocks dropped 6.2 million barrels to a total of 504.6 million in the week ended September 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 0.6 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a rise of 3.2 million barrels in the reported week. The data also showed gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 567,000 barrel fall, whereas distillate stocks added 2.2 million barrels, compared to the 250,000 increase forecast. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.5 million drop in US crude oil inventories for the same week, surpassing the 3.4 million barrel fall market forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: US New Homes Sales
While the value of Gold seems to have remained stable on Monday, high impact fundamental releases are bound to shake the markets significantly. Fluctuations in the Dollar value could cause some uncertainty during Kuroda's Speech, while the afternoon session will do little to calm the markets with the US New Homes Sales announcement, which is likely to play around with the pair's value some more.
Gold faces triangle at 1340
Daily chart: The yearly wedge proved its strength against the three-week channel XAU/USD had established on its way through the senior pattern. Hovering just above the 55-day SMA at 1332.13, the pair confirmed yet another junior pattern – a three-month descending triangle, which has been building up some bearish potential to make a solid attempt at the bottom trend-line of the senior channel at 1316.98. While the channel trend-line has accumulated its strength with continuous confirmations over the last year, the triangle support line (1307.56) is strengthened by the 100-day SMA along with several affirmations during the last two years, making it a tough target to break to the downside.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The triangle upper trend-line has been strictly confirmed at 1342.65 in the hourly chart as well, suggesting that XAU/USD will have a hard time maintaining the track towards the upper trend-line of the senior wedge. Squeezed in between various time-frame SMAs, the pair is likely to continue moving in accordance with the senior wedge targeting the 1317.00 area, and a break below would trigger a dive towards the triangle support level at 1307.56. Demand pressures at 1329.54, 1328.66, 1326.43 and 1322.69, although unlikely to stall the movement completely, could put up a battle to create some obstacles on the way south.
Hourly chart
Traders show mixed expectations on the bullion
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are mostly bullish with respect to the bullion, meaning that 63.90% of positions are long. Additionally, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 55.62% of all positions being held by bulls.