- 58% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Prices fluctuate around the 1,340 level since August 4
- A huge fall was caused by US Non-Farm Payrolls data
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US CPI (July); US Housing Starts (July); US Building Permits (July); US Capacity Utilization (July); US Industrial Production (July)
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July, official data revealed on Friday. According to the Department of Commerce, retail sales came at a seasonally adjusted 0.0% in the reported month, compared to the previous month's upwardly revised figure of 0.8%, while economic desks pencilled in a deceleration to 0.4%. Furthermore, core retail sales, excluding automobiles, dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the seventh month of the year, whereas the preceding month's gain was revised up to 0.9% from the originally reported increase of 0.7%, whereas analysts expected a decrease to 0.2%. Separate reported released by the Department of Labor on the same day showed that US producer prices returned to contraction in July after three months of consecutive growth, as the Producer Price Index dropped 0.2% on an annual basis in the reported month, following the 0.3% rise registered in July. Monthover-month, US factory gate inflation declined 0.4% in July, compared to the 0.5% gain seen in the preceding month, while market analysts anticipated a fall to 0.1% in the reported period. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey released on Friday showed that mood among US shoppers improved in August, as it preliminary Consumer Confidence Index rose to 90.4, compared to July's final print of 90.0, while markets predicted the Index to come in at 91.5 in the reported period.
Manufacturing activity in the Empire State region reflected contraction in the eight month of the year, official data showed on Monday. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the New York Federal Reserve's gauge of activity in the region, came in at -4.2 points in August, compared to the 0.6 hike seen in the previous month, whereas market analysts pencilled in an acceleration to 2.1 during the reported period. After entering positive territory for the first time after eight months in March, the survey's index swung between positive and negative. The survey drove the US Dollar lower against most of the major currencies as well as added to concerns about the state of the US economy, following last week's surpassingly weak economic data. Nevertheless, manufacturers expressed optimism about the US economy over the long-term. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 top manufacturing executives in New York State. The questionnaire seeks their opinion on the change in a number of business indicators from the previous month, and also the likely direction of these indicators six months into the future. A number below 0.0 points indicates contraction in the Empire State manufacturing region, while a number above indicates improving conditions.
Upcoming fundamentals: US CPI, construction and production
Today the US will release data, which will reveal the price, construction and production situation in the US in July. At 12:30 GMT CPI data, Housing Starts and Building Permits data for July will be released. Afterwards, at 13:15 GMT, US Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production data for July will be published. All of the data will be available as a month-to-month change on a percentage basis with some tweaks for each of them. For example the construction indicators will be also available in real numbers. In the meantime, the CPI will be also available on an annual basis and also excluding food and energy.
Gold breaks resistance at 1,345 on Tuesday
Daily chart: The yellow metal managed to break through the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,340.78 and surged to 1,345 mark in the early Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday gold had reached above the weekly PP and retreated. The metal now faces the monthly PP, which is located at 1,345.31. Taking into account the facts that the bullion for a short moment passed the resistance and the forecast of a surge indicated by the daily aggregate technical indicators, it is most likely that gold will continue to surge during today's trading session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart for gold it can be seen that the yellow metal struggled with the weekly PP at 1,340.78 until 14:00 GMT on Monday. Afterwards, the commodity managed to break through the resistance and surge to the 100-hour SMA at 1,342.98. However, by 21:00 GMT it bounced off the SMA and fell below all of the supports to 1,338.30, which could have stopped the metal. After reaching the 1,338.30 low, gold surged and broke past through the whole resistance cluster located from 1,339.80 to 1,345.31, and the cluster is made up of all of the SMAs and weekly and monthly pivot points.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment unchanged on Tuesday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 62.21%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 58.11% of positions are long.