Gold rallies back to 1,330 levels on Friday

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 50% of all SWFX open positions are bullish, as the sentiment is neutral
  • Prices fluctuating around 1,330 level on Friday morning
  • Gold has returned to the previous sticky level
  • Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US PMI Manufacturing (July); Baker Hughes US Rig Count Crude Oil (July 22)
Gold has moved back to the 1,330 level, and it resumes to fluctuate around that level on Friday, as the ECB announced that there will be no rate change for the Eurozone. The yellow metal finally moved on Wednesday, as the metal fell from the 1,330 levels to 1,315. Previously the metal did not fall, as the Bank of England announced no rate cut in July. Gold investors, just like the UK central bankers, want to wait out the Brexit storm.

As markets expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates on hold on Thursday, but signaled that it is prepared to add more monetary stimulus later in the year. The main refinancing rate was left at 0%, whereas the ECB interest rates on the deposit facility and the marginal lending facility remained unchanged at -0.40% and 0.25%, respectively. The central bank slashed its deposit rate deeper into negative territory in March. In a news conference, Mr. Draghi said the Brexit vote had added to "headwinds" for the Euro zone economy that include broader geopolitical uncertainty. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, also confirmed that the monthly asset purchases of 80 billion euros may run beyond the current deadline of March 2017, if necessary. Furthermore, the central bank's President highlighted that the governing council may provide more stimulus at its next meeting in September, as new post-Brexit forecasts for economic growth and inflation will be available by that time. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters slashed their growth forecast for the Euro zone to 1.3% from 1.6%, but left inflation projections unchanged at 1.3%.

Official figures from the US Department of Labor showed on Thursday that the number of Americans filing for government unemployment benefits in the week ended July 16 dropped to 253,000 from 254,000 registered in the previous seven days, signaling that the labor market continues to improve. In the meantime, market analysts expected initial jobless claims to rise to 271,000 in the reported period, after remaining at a three-month low of 254,000 filings for two consecutive weeks. Last week was the 72nd consecutive week that initial claims were below the 300,000 level, extending the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, it is expected that jobless claims data can be volatile in July as automakers begin the process of temporarily shutting down plants to retool them for the new model year. In Michigan last week, applications for jobless benefits decreased 9,600 on an unadjusted basis, while claims in Ohio fell 2,500. Other data on Thursday showed that factory activity in the country's mid-Atlantic region contracted in July, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -2.9 in the reported month, compared to the previous month's reading of 4.7, while analysts anticipated a slight improvement to 5.1 points.

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Upcoming fundamentals: US PMI Manufacturing and Crude oil rig count

Markit statisticians on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, namely the United States, will finalize and publish the US PMI Manufacturing index for July at 13:45 GMT. It is forecasted to be released as 51.5, which would indicate an improvement of manufacturing environment in the US. Afterwards, at 17:00 GMT the Baker Hughes Rig Count for crude oil will influence mainly crude oil prices. However, crude oil very often affects gold prices.



Gold returns back to 1,330 level on Thursday

Daily chart: The yellow metal was trading flat at the start of this week, as it slightly fluctuated around the 1,330 level on Monday and Tuesday. However, the metal fell on Wednesday to around the level of 1,312, which seemed to indicate at the bullions new direction. Although, on Thursday gold surged back to 1,330 level, and it continues to be close by it, as the metal was trading at exactly 1,327.40 by 5:15 GMT. It seems that the commodity is most likely to continue to trade flat, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no change for it today.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold shows a steady surge for the metal from 1,311.69 at 1:00 GMT on Thursday to 1,333.18 by 20:00 GMT. At the 1,333 level the yellow metal met with the 200-hour SMA and tested it for six hours. However, gold failed to break the resistance put up by the SMA, and the metal's price fell to 1,326.10 by 6:15 GMT.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX sentiment remains neutral on Friday

Traders remain neutral on the yellow metal, as 50% of open SWFX positions are long on Friday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 67% long.

Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are largely bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 63.38%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 56.8% of positions are long.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,375 by the end of September

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between June 22 and July 22 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,375 by the end of September. Generally, 46% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,400 in ninety days. Alongside, 46% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,200 and 1,400 over the next three months

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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