- Bullish-bearish gap is decreasing slowly, as bullish portion is up to 45%
- Yesterday's rally was capped by 1,241 (monthly PP), which acts as main bullish target today
- Daily technical indicators continue to be bullish on gold
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Euro zone Current Account (Feb); German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr); US Housing Starts and Building Permits (Mar); RBA Governor Stevens Speaks; New Zealand Dairy Price Index (Apr 19); BOE Governor Carney Speaks; BOC Governor Poloz Speaks; Japanese Trade Balance (Mar)
Gold declined on Tuesday amid a retreat of safe-haven bids after oil stabilized and equities rose, while uncertainty over Fed's monetary policy also weighed. New York Fed President William Dudley said US economic environment is "mostly favourable", but the US central bank remains cautious in hiking interest rates as threats loom. At the same time, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the US central bank is set to raise interest rates more quickly than investors currently expect.
UK house prices rose to a record in April as a strong labour market and ultra-low interest rates continue to support house price growth in Britain. Average asking prices rose 1.3% from March to 307,033 pounds, according to the Rightmove property portal. On an annual basis, prices were 7.3% higher. The data revealed that the price change in April was driven upward mainly by larger and more expensive properties, while the price of smaller properties purchased by first-time buyers experienced a monthly decline of 1.4%. Mortgage provider Halifax reported earlier this month that house prices had accelerated in the three months to March, rising 10.1% above the level seen during the same quarter last year. Prices also grew when measured on a monthly basis, by 2.6%, bouncing back from a decline of 1.5% a month before, Halifax said. Despite this surge in the first quarter, Halifax warned housing market activity should slow in the second half of this year. The number of mortgage approvals growth slowed only slightly to 73,871 in February, down from 74,085 a month before, but remained close to January's two-year high, according to the Bank of England.
Canada's factory sales declined far more than expected in February amid a sharp decrease in shipments of motor vehicles and petroleum and coal products. The value of factory sales dropped 3.3% to 51.19 billion Canadian dollars in February from January, according to Statistics Canada. The fall reversed some of the gains over the previous three months and appeared to be steeper than the 1.5% drop economists had expected. Sales slipped in 16 of the 21 industries Statistics Canada tracks, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the manufacturing sector. Motor-vehicle sales plunged 10.5%, the first decline after four consecutive months of increases. Excluding auto-sector sales, manufacturing shipments declined 2.2% in the month. In volume terms, February factory sales decreased 2.0% compared with the previous month. The sharper-than-expected decrease could spark concerns for economists who have been calling for the non-resource side of the economy, including manufacturing, to lead Canada's economic growth in light of falling global commodity prices. Separately, Canadian home prices and sales rose in March, showing the country's housing market boom still had momentum. The housing market, a pillar of economic strength in the years since the financial crisis, was more positive, with existing-home sales up 1.5% in March.
Upcoming fundamentals: Central bank governors to speak on Tuesday
On April 19 three heads of major central banks are set to take the stage and potentially speak about the outlook for economy and monetary policy. The first among them is going to be the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens. He will talk at 13:30 GMT in New York at the Credit Suisse Global Macro Conference. Governor of the Bank of England's will speak in the UK Parliament at 14:35 GMT, while the Bank of Canada's Governor Stephen Poloz will testify before the lower house of Canadian Parliament at 15:00 GMT. As for fundamentals, the US monthly housing data is due at 12:30 GMT, while Japanese trade figures for March will be released at 23:50 GMT.
Gold erases gains, puts 55-day SMA at new risk
Monday's intraday rally was extending through the weekly and monthly pivot points at 1,239/41. However, by the end of US session the bears managed to retake the lead and sent the bullion into red. Now the near-term cap is established at those pivots, which is set to renew attempts of testing the 55-day SMA, currently at 1,229.27. A slide below here is going to change the market focus and the bears will begin targeting the 1,201/1,198 zone guarded by the weekly S2 and monthly S1. Meanwhile, daily technicals suspect XAU/USD may have a chance to commence a revival.Daily chart
Yesterday, the bulls had two attacks at the 200-hour SMA in the 1H chart. However, in both cases the price was turned around. This is a worrying signal for the bulls, but they continue relying on the April 6-14 uptrend (1,228) as the closest support line.
Hourly chart
Market sentiment grows further
On Monday the SAXO Bank sentiment has very unexpectedly turned negative with respect to the precious metal. We had observed major bullish gains to 56% over the weekend, but now their share is down to 49.85%. As for OANDA, here about six out of ten clients are maintaining long positions on gold.