- Opened positions on Gold remain positive with a confident majority of bullish trades (68% bullish / 32% bearish)
- It is possible that Gold will grow in price further, with the closest resistance for it located at 1,249
- At the same time, the probability of a downside movement exists as well, with the closest support being placed at 1,229
- Upcoming events on February 12: Germany CPI (Jan), Eurozone Industrial Production (Jan), US Unemployment Claims (Feb 6) and Retail Sales (Jan), Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (Jan), Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
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At the same time, the precious metal started climbing on Wednesday amid risk-off sentiment on the market ahead of the emergency gathering of Euro zone finance ministers and Greece's officials. The standstill over Greece debt issues supported the precious metal in recent days, but a strong Greenback and expectations of interest rates hike in the US continue to weigh on bullion. Wolfgang Schaueble, German Finance Minister, expects that Eurogroup will not agree on a new programme today, further fuelling concerns among investors over the potential Grexit.
Meanwhile, US job openings surged more than expected in December, with the headline figure reaching the highest level in 14 years. The monthly JOLTS data is a favourite of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and the strong reading could trigger a relatively hawkish assessment of the labour force. The US labour market created 5.028 million jobs at the end of December, compared with a revised 4.847 million seen in the previous month.
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Bank of England publishes Inflation Report on Feb 12
On Thursday, the Bank of England is going to release its Quarterly Inflation Report, which will give an insight into a recent drop of the consumer price index. Moreover, the regulator may also adjust inflation expectations for the UK. Besides that, Australian statistical authorities will release data concerning the labour market, including the employment change and jobless rate for January. Here, in case the negative expectations are confirmed, demand for the bullion is likely to increase tomorrow.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD forms down-trend after touching 1,307
XAU/USD cross breached the most important resistance on January 3, represented by the long-term downtrend line, which is currently located at 1,201. Consequently, it started to develop above this level to hit the 1,300 mark already on January 21. It, in turn, used to act as a strong supply for Gold in order to resume declining. If the bullion comes under uplifted bearish pressure and manages to consolidate below 1,250 by the mid-February, then we may see the metal's gradual decrease in price back towards 1,200 in the medium-term. Moreover, the long-term outlook for the yellow metal is also remaining negative, mostly reflecting strength of US fundamental factors and QE potential effects in Europe. Therefore, in course of the first quarter the bullion is suggested to lose value.Daily chart
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By remaining range bound between two strong resistance and support areas, Gold continues developing in the sideways trend for a third consecutive day. On Tuesday, despite growing up to 1,246, the yellow metal failed to preserve its bullish momentum and declined back towards the 1,235 mark. The aggregate outlook with respect to the bullion is currently remaining rather neutral. While weekly technical indicators are giving signals to buy Gold, a supply zone around 1,250 is unlikely to let bulls succeed.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened trades keep bullish advantage
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Jan 11 and Feb 11 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,310 by the end of May. At the same time, 59% of them believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 28% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300.
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