- The share of sell orders inched up from 58 to 60%
- Market sentiment remains bullish at 63%
- Immediate resistance is around 1.2570
- The closest support is still around 1.24
- Upcoming events: UK Second Estimate GDP, US Goods Trade Balance, US Markit Services PMI
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter.
Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
UK GDP and US Services PMI
There is only one event from the UK side due today, namely the Second Estimate GDP, which shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Since this is the second release – the impact on the market is likely to be limited. From the US side the Markit Services PMI is due. It captures business conditions in the services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the services PMI is an important indicator of the overall economic condition in the US.
GBP/USD in tight range between 1.24 and 1.25
The British currency barely managed to post gains against the US Dollar, but with the immediate support cluster proving its strength once again. The same cluster, represented by the 20-day SMA, the wedge's support line, the weekly and the monthly PPs, is likely to limit any losses today as well, but a bearish development still has some space to occur. Meanwhile, technical indicators keep giving mixed signals, unable to confirm any scenario. However, in case of a bullish outcome the exchange rate is likely to struggle at climbing over the 1.25 mark, as it kept the Cable at bay for almost two weeks now.
Daily chart
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to consolidate between the trend-line and the 1.25 major level, also being anchored around the 200-hour SMA. No significant movements are expected to occur today, with the trading range remaining the same.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Although not as strong as yesterday, but market sentiment remains bullish at 63% (previously 75%). At the same time, the share of sell orders inched up from 58 to 60%.
A similar situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 62% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (38%), more than sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Similarly, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 64% of traders being long and 36% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect no major changes
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to be higher than the level where it is now. While the current price is around 1.24, the average forecast for November 25 is 1.2336. Furthermore, the 1.14-1.16, the 1.16-1.18 and the 1.26-1.28 intervals are now the most popular ones, having 13% of the votes each. On the second place in terms of the votes is the 1.18-1.20 (11%) interval, followed also by the 1.20-1.22 interval with only 10% of the votes. Moreover, 55% all survey participants believe the Cable is to fall under 1.24.