- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.2557 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators suggest GBP/USD will maintain a ranging market
- No high impact economic news to watch today
The mood of American shoppers improved more than expected in November, after falling to its lowest level since 2014 in the previous month, a flash survey showed on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index produced by the University of Michigan came in at 91.6, up from October's final reading of 87.2, while market analysts anticipated s slight acceleration to 87.4 points. The survey was conducted before the results of the US presidential elections were announced. Furthermore, the Index was 0.3% higher than at the same time last year, and surpassed the current year's average of 91.1 points. Meanwhile, the sub-gauge of current economic conditions advanced 2.6% to 105.9, and the sub-gauge of future expectations increased 7.4% to 82.5 from the prior month's 76.8 points. Consumer sentiment managed to improve in November, even though long-term and short-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.7%, after touching a record low of 2.4% in October. Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey, said that it may be a one-month phenomenon. Nevertheless, he added that the November data may be enough to justify a December rate hike. The EUR/USD pair fell immediately to 1.0872 from 1.0873 ahead of the release.
British manufacturing activity jumped unexpectedly in September amid rising inflationary pressures, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the Office for National Statistics, factory output rose 0.6% month-over-month in September, the biggest increase since April, up from the preceding month's gain of 0.2%, while market analysts anticipate an acceleration of 0.5%. On annual basis, manufacturing output grew 0.2%, surpassing forecasts for a 0.5% fall. Nevertheless, the country's manufacturing output dropped 0.9% in the Q3. On the negative side, industrial production declined 0.4% in September, unchanged from the previous month, whereas economists expected to see an increase of 0.1% in the reported month. Year-over-year, industrial output advanced 0.3%, although analysts predicted a rise of 0.8%. On a quarterly basis, UK industrial production declined 0.5%. The September fall in industrial output was mainly driven by a decrease in demand for heating amid warmer-than-usual weather and planned maintenance in oil and gas fields of the North Sea. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector is expected to expand markedly in the upcoming months due to the weak British Pound, which fell sharply after the country's decision to leave the European Union.
No Upcomming Fundamental Releases on Monday ahead of high impact announcements on Tuesday
There are no upcoming fundamental data releases scheduled on Monday, shifting our focus to Tuesday's set of high impact announcements that could leave the markets shaking. The UK CPI, PPI and Inflation will come at 9:30 GMT and 10:00 GMT consequently, with more surprise waves at 1:30 GMT from the other side of the globe, when core retail sales, the Empire State Manufacturing index and import prices shifting fundamental momentum to one side or the other.
GBP/USD slips with ease
Daily Chart: GBP/USD entered Monday's trading session in the red zone, testing the weekly Pivot Point right under a daily cloud resistance. The pair appears to have entered a rising wedge, suggesting that 1.2495 will be critical to gain insights on the next movement. While a close below would put 1.2416, the weekly S1 into perspective, a bounce from the area would still preserve bearish potential for a downside breakout over the next few days. We see the rate maintaining the northward motion during the day with various time-frame SMAs weighing on the currency pair from above.Daily chart
Hourly Chart: The pair sketched a small-scale channel-like formation to guide its movements south, consistently moving towards the senior uptrend after the latest rally proved unsustainable. After posting a gap at 21:00 November 11, the rate lost some downside volatility and could now be trying to strengthen the poor channel with a bullish motion towards 1.2561. In case of a dive, we would look, however, for tests of 1.2503, the bottom trend-line of the channel, following a hitch at 1.2530/27. Currently, an extension of the low downside volatility can be expected because of the 55-hour SMA limiting access to levels underneath 1.2536
Hourly chart
Traders continue bullish streak
Traders remained optimistic on the Pound, as 61% of open positions stand long on Monday, with a slight fall from Friday's 62%. Meanwhile, pending orders show the opposite trend, displaying a 59% of investors wanting to sell GBP/USD.
OANDA traders remain bullish on Monday, as 58.96% of open positions are long. SAXO Bank clients agree with 53.57% bearish positions.