- Portion of buy orders increased from 39 to 47%
- 63% of traders have a positive outlook towards the Pound
- Immediate resistance is at 1.2393
- The closest support is around 1.2250
- Upcoming events: UK Average Earnings Index, UK Claimant Count Change, UK Unemployment Rate, US Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Beige Book
UK consumer prices expended at the fastest annual pace in nearly two years during the previous month. According to the Office for National Statistic, the annual rate of CPI inflation equals 1%, up from 0.6%in August and slightly higher than economists had been expecting. It is worth to point out, that this is the biggest monthly increase in the cost of household goods and services since November 2014. The following jump in inflation will cost poorer households around 100 pounds each, as their benefits will not advance in line with CPI. Meanwhile, the main upward pressure on consumer price index came from an acceleration of clothing and footwear price tags - namely women's clothes. The clothing prices went up 6% between August and September, compared a 3.3% rise over the same period last year. Moreover, the Office for National Statistics highlighted there were no 'explicit' signs that the weakness of the sterling contributed to the rose in CPI.
In the meantime, the Retail Prices Index measure of inflation, which includes housing costs, has also expanded to 2 % in September from 1.8% in August.
UK Labor Market data and US Beige Book are the main events
From the UK side today the employment figures are due. The Claimant Count Change is the number of people that claimed unemployment related benefits during the previous month. Although it is not the most popular data release, it tends to cause some volatility in the markets, along with the Unemployment Rate and the Average Earnings Index. A small improvement is expected, thus, driving the Pound higher. Meanwhile, from the US side the Building Permits are due. They show the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. At the same time, the Housing Starts are due, which show the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the preceding month. Finally, the US Beige Book is due later today. It reports on the current US economic situation. Through interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources are gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The survey gives a picture of the overall US economic growth. An optimistic view of those authorities is considered as positive for the USD, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative.
GBP/USD sets eye on 1.24
The British currency received a boost from a good CPI reading yesterday, successfully climbing over the 1.23 mark. As a result, the Sterling could post more gains against the US Dollar, with the next target being the 1.24 level. However, the 1.24 mark is bolstered by the weekly R1, which could prevent the Cable from edging above 1.2390. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving mixed signals in all timeframes, creating a possibility for a corrective decline to occur. In this case the immediate support area will doubtfully limit the losses, with the pair sliding back to 1.22.
Daily chart
The Cable continued to appreciate on Tuesday, attempting to pierce the 200-hour SMA and ultimately somewhat succeeding in doing so. However, risks of the exchange rate falling under the given SMA persist, thus, the pair is unable to fully establish a medium-term recovery trend. Today's outcome is expected to clarify the picture.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Today 63% of traders have a positive outlook towards the Pound, compared to 66% on Tuesday. There has been a solid increase in the share of purchase orders, namely from 39 to 47%
A similar situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 60% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (40%), more than sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Similarly, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 66% of traders being long and 34% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect no major changes
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to be higher than the level where it is now. While the current price is around 1.23, the average forecast for January 19 is 1.2733. Furthermore, the 1.28-1.30 interval is now the most popular one, having 15% of the votes. On the second place in terms of the votes is the 1.32-1.34 (12%) interval, followed by the 1.20-1.22 price range with 9% of the votes. Moreover, 64% all survey participants believe the Cable is to fall under 1.30.