- Purchase orders take up 49% of the market
- 58% of traders are short the Pound
- The nearest support is around 1.3125
- Immediate resistance is around 1.33
- 52% of traders reckon GBP/USD will be at 1.30 or lower in three months
- Upcoming events: UK Construction PMI, US Average Hourly Earnings, US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate, US Trade Balance, US Factory Orders
UK manufacturing sector rebounded unexpectedly from the post-Brexit shock in August, official data revealed on Thursday. The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index, a closely followed gauge of factory activity in the region, jumped to 53.3 points in the reported month after hitting a three year low of 48.3 last month. Market analysts pencilled in a slight acceleration to 49.1 in the eight month of the year. The manufacturing sector accounts for only 10% of Britain's economy; however, if the services sector PMI, due next week, supports the same positive trend, analysts would have to reassess the economic impact of the Brexit vote. Back in July, weak PMI data suggested the UK economy contracted at the fastest pace since the financial crisis in 2008-2009 and forced the Bank of England to cut its interest rates by 25 basis points to a record-low 0.25%.
After the release of the UK Manufacturing PMI for August, the British Pound rose to its highest level since August 26, trading above $1.32 against the US Dollar. After the June 23 referendum, the Sterling dropped more than 10% against the Greenback, as well as the Euro, and failed to recover any ground against other major currencies, as analysts warned of the long-term negative effects of Brexit.
UK Construction PMI and US NFP
Today from the UK side there is only one relevant event, namely the Construction PMI. The UK Construction PMI shows business conditions in the UK construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the manufacturing sector does. However, from the US side a number of fundamental events are due. The Non-Farm Payrolls will be the most important one, which presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore market's reaction depends on how the market assets them all. Speaking about the Unemployment Rate, it is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen as recessionary economies, while on the contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing.
GBP/USD trades in murky waters
A strong reading of the UK Manufacturing PMI yesterday allowed the Sterling to take the upper hand versus the US Dollar, with the exchange rate reaching the tough resistance area 1.33. However, the Pound was unable to climb over this major level, but technical indicators suggest that another rally could push the Cable even higher today. The main gauge of such a development would be weak US NFP results later today, with the pair seen as high as 1.34, where the weekly R2 and the monthly R1 are located. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD pair could also retreat back to 1.32 should the NFP come out better than expected.
Daily chart
On the hourly chart the Cable was seen breaking through the possible down-trend and reaching fresh four-week high. However, risks of the bearish momentum prevailing are now higher, due to the pair rebounding from the ascending channel's resistance line.
Hourly chart
Still no consensus
Bearish market sentiment returned to its previous Friday's level of 58% (previously 52%). At the same time, the share of purchase orders lost two percentage points. The orders now take up 49% of the market.
Indecision appears to be widespread, as the same neutral sentiment is observed among the traders of other brokers. At OANDA, 51% of positions are long and 49% are short. The sentiment at Saxo Bank turned bullish now, as the numbers of longs and shorts each take up 60% and 40% of the market, respectively.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Majority sees the GBP/USD below 1.30 in three months
Slightly more than half of traders (52%) believe the British currency is to cost 1.30 or less dollars after a three-month period. The most popular price intervals, however, were the 1.26-1.28, 1.34-1.36 and the 1.36-1.38 ones, all three selected by 13% of the voters. The second most popular choice implies that the Sterling is to cost either between 1.28 and 1.30 dollars or between 1.38 and 1.40 dollars in three months, both chosen by 11% of the surveyed. At the same time, the mean forecast for Dec 02 is 1.3064.