- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0605
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment rate; US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders; FOMC Member Evans Speaks
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined to a 8-week low, official figures revealed on Thursday. However, last week's drop in claims was almost certainly exaggerated due to the Christmas holiday. According to the US Department of Labor, national jobless claims declined 28,000, to 235,000, during the week ending December 30, reaching their lowest level since the middle of November. Meanwhile, economists anticipated a slight deceleration to 260,000 during the reported period. It was the 96th week that initial jobless claims remained below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Firms prevented firings as the supply of workers dropped pointing to a tight and healthy labor market. In the meantime, the four-week average of initial claims dropped 5,750 to 256,570 in the past week. Nevertheless, continuing jobless claims advanced 16,000 to 2.11 million in the week ended December 24, the highest rate since September.
The job market is considered to be near or at full employment, supported by the lower unemployment rate. Back in December, rising inflation and strong labor market trends allowed the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate to 0.50% from 0.75%.
Upcoming fundamental releases: A data set from the US at 13:30 GMT
13:30 GMT is the time to watch the economic calendars and the Dukascopy research team's coverage of the batch of data coming from the US. To be precise, at 13:30 GMT US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and the US Trade Balance are set to be released. The employment data could cause volatility in the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently all its exchange rates and the commodities against which the Greenback is traded.
EUR/USD retreats after massive gains
Daily Chart: On Friday morning the common European currency was in a retreat against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate encountered the resistance of the upper trend line of a medium term ascending channel pattern. However, the rate seemed to already have found support by 7:00 GMT, as it encountered the monthly PP at 1.0580. That stopped the fall for the time being. Although, it is most likely that the decline will resume shortly. Previously, during Thursday's trading session the currency pair surged 1.12% from 1.0489 to 1.0606.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart it can be seen that the rate failed to break through the upper trend line of the newly formed medium size ascending channel pattern near 1.0610. However, the rebound against the monthly PP at 1.0580, which has occurred recently, can possibly cause another attempt at the trend line. Although, a break of the resistance line is quite unlikely.
Hourly chart
Bullish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain slightly bullish, as 54% of open positions were long on Friday morning. Meanwhile, 59% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have become neutral, as 50.06% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Friday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders increased their bearish outlook, as 39.43% of open positions were long, compared to 41.32% before.