- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are slightly bearish (45% long / 55% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1294
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1145
- Upcoming events on June 11: US Unemployment Claims (Jun 5) and Retail Sales (May)
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The German economy continues to post a better-than-expected data, with the nation's exports and industrial output rising more sharply than predicted in April. Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.9% on the month, according to Destatis, far outstripping the median forecast of economists for a 0.1% gain. April marked the third consecutive month of growth in exports.
In the meantime, imports dropped 1.3%, against expectations for a 0.5% rise, widening German trade surplus to 22.3 billion euros. Moreover, industrial production increased 0.9% in April, following the 0.4% decline in the previous month and overshooting economists' consensus forecast for a 0.6% growth.
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US retail trade continued to expand in May
US retail sales are assumed to be an important indicator for the Federal Reserve to decide on its future monetary policy. The headline reading remained flat in April and rose by just 0.1% on a core basis. However, last month they are forecasted to have surged by 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The data will be released along with the US initial jobless claims at 12:30 PM GMT.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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After a rally observed on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair decided to hold below the major downtrend line around 1.13 yesterday. Additional resistance for the pair is, however, created by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The broad outlook for the Euro remains unchanged at the moment. The pair is required to consolidate above the monthly R1 (1.1360) in order to confirm the medium-term bullish expectations. The long-term goal for bulls is, in turn, the May high at 1.1470.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment unchanged, pending orders decline
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price are swinging around 50% for the sixth consecutive day. On Tuesday the share of bullish commands plunged again, as a decrease amounted to nine percentage points, down from 54% to 45%.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be capped by the monthly R1 at 1.1360. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be extended down to the weekly pivot point at 1.1126.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to trade sideways against the US Dollar this week
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aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the single currency by saying that "EUR/USD will continue its decrease, since in the daily chart price is moving lower with better than expected US non-farm payrolls data."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 10 and June 10 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just above 1.10 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 57% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade below this level in ninety days, with 24% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 16% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of September of this year.
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