EUR/USD seeks growth opportunities

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot changed to strongly positive (65% bullish / 35% bearish)
  • The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1217
  • At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1059
  • Upcoming events on May 13: France GDP (Q1), Germany GDP (Q1) and CPI (Apr), Italy GDP (Q1), Euro zone GDP (Q1) and Industrial Production (Mar), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Retail Sales (Apr)

© Dukascopy Bank SA
On Monday, there were two clear major market movers among the Euro-currency pairs. From one side, EUR/NZD surged significantly by 1.70%, as economists are turning more dovish on the stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The biggest market participants are now suggesting the RBNZ may cut rates this year amid near-zero inflation. On the other hand, EUR/GBP tanked 1.30% yesterday, even though the Bank of England kept the monetary policy unchanged. This cross followed bearish developments of EUR/USD, which, in turn, declined 0.39%.

Germany's economy, the Euro zone's powerhouse, could expand more in 2015 that the 1.6% forecast in April if lower energy prices and the European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme provide a bigger support than estimated, the International Monetary Fund acknowledged.

Private consumption will be the main growth catalyst for the German economy in 2015 as workers benefit from robust wage gains, while net exports will also provide support, according to the IMF. Last month the German government upgraded its growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 to 1.8% as both sentiment indicators and fundamentals pointed to an improving trend, buoyed by the weaker Euro, which support exports, as well as low energy prices, which increase German consumers' purchasing power.

Watch More: Dukascopy TV




Euro zone's GDP advance to show positive QE impact

Wednesday of this week will be full of different important fundamental statistics. At first, many Euro zone's countries will release the GDP numbers for the first quarter of this year. While Germany is currently predicted to grow by 0.5%, French and Italian economies have probably gained 0.4% and 0.2% on a quarterly basis, respectively. Later during the day US will publish the retail sales data, as they are estimated to add 0.2% in April, following a 0.9% jump a month before.


EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range

Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.15 mark where long-term downtrend will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. In the meantime, the Euro's parity against the US Dollar is not off the table in the long-term.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Unchanged from yesterday's outlook, EUR/USD is still estimated to be capable of rebound in the near-term. The pair stayed above 1.1150 on Monday, and unless it hovers above the March high at 1.1052 the forecast may remain fairly positive. In addition to that, the mentioned demand line guards next supports at 1.10 (monthly PP) and 55-day SMA at 1.09. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators are giving strong signals to buy the Euro at the moment.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis

EUR/USD sentiment is bearish, while pending orders climb above 60%

The gap between long and short positions remains well-pronounced in favour of the latter, as bulls are currently keeping just 44% of all opened positions, unchanged during the past 24 hours. Despite that, OANDA traders are also holding just 43.90% in long opened positions, making it the second lowest sentiment among all major currency pairs there. Saxo Bank clients are also strongly pessimistic towards the 19-nation currency, where bulls account for just 36% of all traders by 5:30am GMT on Tuesday.

At the same time, pending orders to buy the Euro currency against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price have unexpectedly gained 16% on a daily basis and reached the 65% mark this morning. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be extended up to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1294. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be capped by the March high at 1.1052.









Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility





Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Apr 12 and May 12 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.09 by the end of August. Though the majority of participants, namely 48% of them, believe the exchange rate will be still below the 1.08 level in ninety days, with 28% alone seeing it below 1.04. Alongside, 23% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.08 and 1.14 by the end of August of this year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Actual Topics

Subscribe to "Fundamental Analysis" feed

Suscribir
Para conocer más sobre la plataforma de Trading de CFD y Forex de Dukascopy Bank, SWFX y otras informaciones relacionadas con el Trading,
llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre la posible cooperación, por favor llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre las opciones binarias de Dukascopy Bank / La plataforma de operaciones de Forex, SWFX y otra información relacionada con el Trading, por favor llámenos o solicite una devolución de llamada.
Para conocer más sobre la plataforma de Trading de CFD y Forex de Dukascopy Bank, SWFX y otras informaciones relacionadas con el Trading,
llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información acerca de la plataforma de operaciones Crypto Trading / CFD / Forex, SWFX y otra información relacionada con el comercio,
llámenos o realice una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre Business Introducer y otra información relacionada con el comercio,
llámenos o realice una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre la posible cooperación, por favor llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.