- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are slightly negative (48% bullish / 52% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1160
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1050
- Upcoming events on May 1: US Manufacturing PMI (Apr) and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)
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The European Central Bank increased the amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek banks, but said that access to funds may become more difficult as bailout negotiations remain at a standstill. The Governing Council raised the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance by 1.4 billion euros to 76.9 billion euros following an increase of about 1.5 billion euros last week.
Meanwhile, confidence in the Euro bloc's economy fell slightly in the current month, but the business morale improved and increasing inflation expectations of households suggested that the threat of deflation may have been finally overcome, the European Commission said. The index came in at 103.7 in April, down from 103.9 seen in the previous month.
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Bank Holiday to bring little news on Friday
On the first day of May, many countries around the globe will enjoy a Bank Holiday, including the majority of European countries and China. However, some important statistics will come from the US tomorrow. Markit and ISM are both going to publish the manufacturing PMI for the world's biggest economy in April, and currently analysts expect a marginal rebound to about 52 points.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.13 mark where 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as September-October. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Despite registering a major growth on Wednesday and crossing the important area at 1.1050 (April high, January low, weekly R2), the future outlook for EUR/USD is currently mostly neutral. Some bounce back can be observed in the short-term, following a 150-pip surge yesterday. Moreover, technical indicators are still pointing to the downside on weekly and monthly time frames, while the Stochastic suggests the pair became overbought this week.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders remain negative
Pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot remain just below the neutral level at 48%, down one percentage point from yesterday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly R3 at 1.12. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 55-day SMA at 1.0923 in the medium-term.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US Dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
al_dcdemo, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the pair will break above 1.10 level in the near future. With weaker data from US, and Europe, which is back on recovery track." Moreover, he supposes that "uncertainty over Greece will be resolved by summer."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 30 and Apr 30 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 51% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 26% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 24% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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