- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (46% bullish / 54% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0735
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0520
- Upcoming events on April 17: Euro zone CPI (Mar), US CPI (Mar) and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)
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After being briefly interrupted by a protestor chanting "end ECB dictatorship", Mario Draghi, ECB President, said that there were signs that a recently launched quantitative easing programme supported the Euro zone economic recovery. Although the central bank expects the currency bloc's economy to strengthen, it does not plan to curb or curtail its money-printing scheme.
Draghi was also surprised that an end to the programme is being discussed so soon after it was launched. While Moody's Investors Service warned the Frankfurt-based central bank that it could soon run out of eligible bonds from some governments, Draghi brushed aside this warning.
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Euro area CPI forecasted to stay below zero
Even though tomorrow there is only a few fundamental news expected to be released, they all are important enough to receive attention from the markets. Firstly, the Eurostat will publish the Euro zone's inflation data for March, and the CPI is estimated to remain at -0.1%. Following that, the same inflation statistics will be published in the US, while later the University of Michigan will release the April's consumer sentiment index for the world's largest economy.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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The short-term outlook for EUR/USD currency pair remains bullish. Yesterday, we have observed a positive move of the common currency in the direction of 2003 low / weekly PP at 1.0750, even though initially bears attempted to push the Euro downwards. However, for the forecast to remain bullish in the medium-term as well, the pair should close above monthly PP at 1.0811. Otherwise, if the pair fails to rise at least above 1.0735, there will be a higher risk of sell-offs with a target at 1.0520 (Bollinger band) by the end of this week.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment remains above 50%, pending orders stay negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are completely unchanged from yesterday and are still remaining below the neutral level at 46%. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0735. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below this year's low at 1.0461.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to resume declining this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the ECB plans to keep interest rates low. Therefore, I am expecting to see EUR/USD exchange rate lower on Friday April 17."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 16 and Apr 16 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 53% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 26% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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