- The share of sell orders returned to its Monday's level of 55%
- 58% of traders are long the Pound
- Immediate resistance is around 1.2512
- The closest support is at 1.2449
- Upcoming Events: US Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Britain's public sector budget surplus expanded less than expected in January, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK public sector's net borrowing, which excludes state-owned banks, registered a budget surplus increase to £9.4B in the first month of 2017, the highest figure since 2000, compared to the £9.1B a year ago. Nonetheless, the January surplus growth was worse than analysts' expectations for a £14.7B hike. Moreover, borrowing requirements for the first 10 months of 2016-2017 fiscal year decreased to £49.3B from £62.9B. That was the lowest 10-month budget deficit in nearly nine years. Furthermore, the ONS said net debt rose to 85.3% of GDP from 83.4% recorded in the preceding year. Due to certain changes in methodology of the latest data release, the report also revealed there was a £2.1B transfer from the BoE Asset Purchase Facility Fund. Overall, the confidence in the near-term budget outlook is likely to appreciate due to solid revenue growth.
Separately, the BoE Governor Mark Carney, speaking on the February inflation report, pointed out that inflation is entirely affected by the currency, while rates are set to rise more quickly than expected.
All eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes
There is only one upcoming fundamental data release which might have some importance – the US Existing Home Sales. It provides an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. However, the most impact is expected to be from the FOMC Meeting Minutes. FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. Any news concerning a possible rate hike in March is likely to trigger volatility in USD pairs today.
GBP/USD attempts to reclaim 1.25
Despite strong downside volatility, the GBP/USD pair managed to recover from its intraday low and even close trade in the green zone. The Cable now faces the 1.25 resistance, which is bolstered by the 20-day SMA and the weekly R1. However, a breach of this area does not ensure further bullish momentum is to follow; for that the Sterling is required to climb over the 1.2540 level, as that would slightly reassure the current three-week down-trend is to come to an end. A strong support area just above 1.24 is likely to help the British currency remain afloat, as it has been doing for a whole a month now.
Daily chart
The Cable was seen retesting the support line on the hourly chart yesterday, which provided sufficient impetus to not only break through the 200-hour SMA, but even the bearish trend-line. However, the pair was unable to maintain trade above 1.25, with the exchange rate soon returning back in the triangle's trading range, poised to retest the support line once again. The upper trend-line now has a higher chance of getting completely pierced due to today's border violation.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
There are 58% of traders being long the Pound today, compared to 59% on Tuesday. At the same time, the share of sell orders returned to its Monday's level of 55% (down from 58% previously).
A slightly less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 55% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (45%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 58% of traders now being long and the other 42% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to rise above the 1.22 major level, as 59% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.2450, the average forecast for May 22 is 1.257. The 1.20-1.22 interval is now the most popular price interval, having 19% of the votes, while on the second place are the 1.18-1.20 and the 1.34-1.36 price ranges, with 13% of poll participants choosing each of them. Furthermore, the 1.30-1.32 interval was chosen by 12% of the voters.