- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 57% to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0748
- Upcoming Events: Eurogroup Meetings; US Unemployment Claims; US New Homes Sales
German business sentiment fell unexpectedly this month as companies downgraded their outlooks, a private survey revealed on Thursday. The Munich-based Ifo Institute reported its Business Climate Index, which is based on approximately 7,000 monthly survey responses in the construction, manufacturing, retail and wholesale sectors, decreased to 109.8 from 111.0 points seen December, while market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 111.3 in the reported period. Furthermore, there was a slight confidence fall in wholesale, while retailing sentiment dropped to a five month-low. In the meantime, the Current Assessment Index advanced to 116.9 in January from 116.7 points registered in the prior month, matching analysts' expectations. However, the Business Expectations Index, which tracks sentiment in the next six months, declined to 103.2 during the reported period from 105.5 in December, hitting the lowest level in five months.
The latest Ifo report suggests that companies are positively confident in near-term growth. In addition, manufacturers intend to increase prices. According to forecasts, German industries are likely to gain support from the firming global economy and ECB‘s accommodative monetary policy. Exports are set to appreciate 2.8% this year on the stronger Euro.
Upcoming events: Eurogroup meets and various US data
During Thursday's trading session all day long the Eurogroup Meetings will be occurring. Traders should keep an ear to the ground to know what comes out of them. However, during the day there are also scheduled US fundamental data releases, which might impact the strength of the US Dollar. At 13:30 GMT US Unemployment Claims are set to be published. Afterwards, at 15:00 GMT the US New Home Sales data will be released. Traders should look more at the Unemployment Claims, rather the housing data.
EUR/USD remains near 1.0750 level
Daily Chart: On Thursday morning the common European currency remained below the weekly R1 at 1.0752 against the US Dollar. During the morning hours the rate once more attempted to break through the resistance level. This move was unexpected, as in accordance with various technical analysis factors the pair is set to fall to the 1.0666 mark. It seems that fundamental data and events are keeping the Euro flat against the Greenback. However, the previous forecast is still in force, and a fall is expected.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart confirms the hypothesis that the recent moves in the currency exchange rate were caused by fundamental factors. It can be clearly seen that the hourly descending channel was broken during a jump that occurred at 9:00 GMT. The rate formed an ascending channel as a result. However, the most important fact is that the rates move lower is being slowed down by a combined support level of the 100-hour SMA and the lower Bollinger band of the hourly chart near the 1.0730 level.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders largely bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 55% of open positions remain short, just as on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 57% of trader set up pending commands are set up to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders increased their bearish outlook, regarding the pair, as 55.81% of open EUR/USD positions were short on Thursday, compared to 54.19% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have done the same, as 64.61% of open positions were short, compared to 63.60% previously.