- 52% of all pending orders are to sell the Sterling
- 72% of traders are long the Pound
- Immediate resistance is around 1.2440
- The closest support is at 1.2342
- Upcoming Events: US CPI and Core CPI, US Capacity Utilization Rate, US Industrial Production, US Beige Book, Fed Chair Yellen's Speech
British consumer prices showed solid growth in December, due to the weak Sterling, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% to 1.6% year-over-year in December, compared to the preceding month's 1.2%, above market estimates of 1.4% hike. It was the strongest expansion since 2014. Furthermore, the ONS said factory gate prices increased 2.7% from Novembers' 2.4%, though slower than expected. In the meantime, input prices jumped 15.8% on a yearly basis, after rising 13.3% in the previous month, whereas economists penciled in an increase of 15.5%.
In addition, the report said, the so-called core CPI, which excludes prices for volatile items such as energy and food, rose to 1.6% from 1.4% in the reported month, in line with analysts' expectations, while the Retail Price Index came in at 2.5%, compared with 2.2% previously. The surge in British consumer price inflation was mainly driven by rising prices for airfares, gasoline, clothing and food. The slide in the value of the Pound boosted costs for British companies. According to the latest forecasts, the further rise in UK inflation is likely to force the Bank of England to tighten its monetary policy and the annual rate is expected to exceed 2% in the next six months, driven by higher import costs.
Focus turns to US data
Today the most important fundamental events are from the US side, namely the CPI and Core CPI figures. The US CPI is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. In Core CPI those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Another important data release will be the Industrial Production, which shows the volume of production of US industries, such as factories and manufacturing. Up-trend is regarded as inflationary, which may anticipate interest rate to rise. The Beige Book is also relatively important, as it reports on the current US economic situation. Through interviews with key business contracts, economists, market experts, and other sources are gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The survey gives a picture of the overall US economic growth. Nevertheless, the Fed Chair's Speech today is likely to cause the most volatility if something extremely relevant will be said today.
GBP/USD takes a breath after Tuesday's rally
On Tuesday the GBP/USD pair experienced the strongest rally in almost 20 years, amid UK May's comments and upbeat UK inflation data. Having surged 363 pips, the Cable fully realised the falling wedge pattern, as its upper trend-line was pierced yesterday. Moreover, the 1.24 major level was retaken, with the 55-day SMA managing to provide sufficient resistance to limit the gains. The same SMA keeps providing resistance today, also being bolstered by the Bollinger band, the monthly PP and the weekly R2, which altogether are likely to cause the Pound to undergo a bearish correction. The weekly R1 at 1.2324 is the closest support, which is expected to limit the possible losses.
Daily chart
The 200-hour SMA failed to contain the pair on Tuesday, allowing it to breach the wedge's resistance line. However, the exchange rate topped out at 1.2420, nearly a one-month high, as bears began taking profit of the rally. From this point the Cable could fall back under 1.23, but bulls are eventually expected to prevail.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Today 72% of traders are long the Pound (previously 73%), whereas 52% of all pending orders are to sell the Sterling, up from 50%.
A less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 56% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (44%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Similarly, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 59% of traders being long and 41% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to fall under the 1.22 major level, as 58% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.23, the average forecast for April 18 is 1.2175. However, the 1.14-1.16 interval is now the most popular one, having 18% of the votes, while on the second place is the 1.18-1.20 price range, with 14% of poll participants choosing it. Furthermore, the 1.16-1.18 and the 1.20-1.22 intervals were each chosen by 13% of the voters.