EUR/USD back to 1.0550

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is neutral
  • Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
  • Pair opened Wednesday's session at 1.0555
  • Upcoming Events: Trump Speaks; FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
After encountering the upper trend line of the medium scale ascending channel against the US Dollar on Tuesday, the Euro began to depreciate. The process continued into Wednesday. The forecast for the currency exchange rate remains the same, which is a fall of the rate. On Wednesday the rate faced support cluster, which might prep the rate up. However, that seemed unlikely, as the pair has been trying to move pass the support for almost a week.

The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts' expectations of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year.

Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: Trump speaks

Fluctuations in the financial markets on Wednesday will be caused by US President-Elect Donald Trump, who has scheduled a press conference at Trump Tower for 16:00 GMT. In addition, the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently the markets might be shaken by the speech of FOMC member Dudley at 18:20 GMT.



EUR/USD remains near 1.0550

Daily Chart: On Wednesday morning the common European currency remained almost flat against the US Dollar near the 1.0550 mark. During Tuesday's trading session the rate once more tried to move higher and failed after encountering the resistance line of a medium term ascending channel. Due to that the outlook for the currency exchange pair still remains bearish. The pair is most likely to move lower and once more approach the support cluster near the 1.0520 mark, which is made up of 2015 December and April low levels together with the 20-day SMA.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: On the hourly chart for the EUR/USD currency exchange rate a short term descending channel pattern can be seen. The channel formed in the aftermath of hitting the upper trend line of the larger pattern. This is another confirmation for the hypothesis that the Euro will depreciate against the US Dollar. In addition, the 20, 55 and 100-hour SMAs have passed the rate and have begun to provide resistance to the pair.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders become neutral

SWFX traders have become neutral, regarding the pair. Meanwhile, 59% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.


OANDA traders remain almost neutral, as 50.91% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders decreased their bearish outlook, as 59.36% of open positions were short, compared to 61.62% previously.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.04 in April

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between December 11 and January 11 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.04 by middle of April. In addition, 39% of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days and 12% see it above 1.12. Alongside, 42% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade below 1.02 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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