- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0437
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Flash Services PMI
Consumer prices in the Euro zone advanced in line with analysts' expectations last month, official data showed on Friday. According to Eurostat, the headline Consumer Price Index was revised up to 0.6% in November, the highest level since April 2014, from the preliminary reading of 0.5%, meeting economists' projections. Data also showed that the so-called core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose 0.8% in the 11th month of the year, matching the flash reading and consensus forecast. The price of energy dropped 0.2% and 1.1% month-over-month and year-over-year, respectively. The cost of non-energy industrial goods held steady in November, while prices of services declined 0.3% on a monthly basis, growing 1.1% in annual terms. The latest PMI survey signaled strong inflationary pressures in the Euro zone industrial sector. Moreover, analysts widely expect the weaker Euro, combined with higher oil prices, boost inflation in the region during the upcoming months, suggesting the headline rate could move above 1.0%. After the release, the EUR/USD rose to around 1.047 after hitting the lowest level since 2003 after the Federal Reserve raised its interest rate on Wednesday.
Both building permits and housing starts dropped more than expected last month, suggesting that the Q4 growth rate could be possibly revised downwards. According to the US Department of Commerce, new-home construction fell 18.7%, the biggest decrease in almost two years, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units in November, while market analysts anticipated a slight deceleration to 1.23 million during the reported period. Housing starts tend to be volatile on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, the October figure was revised up to a 1.34 million-unit pace, the highest level since July 2007, from the originally reported 1.32 million. The Commerce Department also reported that building permits declined 4.7% to an annualized rate of 1.20 million units, following October's upwardly revised reading of 1.26 million, whereas economists expected them to decrease to a 1.24 millionunit pace. Nevertheless, the National Association of Homebuilder's sentiment measure, released on Thursday, jumped to 70 points in December, the highest level in 11 years, compared to the previous month's figure of 63. December's increase was driven in large part by Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential elections last month.
Upcoming fundamental releases: US Flash Services PMI
During Monday's trading session there is set only one macroeconomic data release to occur. At 14:45 the US Flash Services PMI is set to be released. However, this is a very minor fundamental data release, and it is highly unlikely that the data will affect the markets via an impact on the US Dollar.
EUR/USD near 2015 low on Monday
Daily Chart: On Monday morning the common European currency traded just above the 2015 low level of 1.0462 against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate began the day below the 1.0450 mark. However, during the early hours of Monday trading the pair managed to surge above the resistance put up by the before mentioned historical low level. It is likely that the rate will reach the next resistance at 1.0495, where the newly calculated weekly PP is located at. Although, it is unlikely that this resistance will be broken, and the pair is probably going to fall afterwards.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the EUR/USD pair is being prepped up by the 20-hour and 55-hour simple moving averages, which are providing support to the currency exchange rate. In addition, the upper and lower Bollinger bands have closed in on the 20-hour SMA, as volatility has decreased. The upper Bollinger band provided the resistance, which kept the rate from jumping upwards each attempt.
Hourly chart
Sentiment remains bullish
SWFX traders remain bullish on the pair, as 56% of open positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, trader set up orders remained unchanged, compared to Friday, as 60% of pending commands were to sell the Euro.
OANDA trader sentiment remained almost unchanged on Monday, as 55.90% of open EUR/USD positions were long, compared to 55.59% on Friday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders were almost neutral, as 50.20% of open positions were long.