- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 63% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0752
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Euro zone minimal bid rate; ECB press conference; US unemployment claims
The number of job openings was little changed in October, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS survey, employers advertised 5.53 million openings, a rate of 3.7%, in the reported month, in line with analysts' expectations. Meanwhile, the September figure was revised up to 5.63 million from the originally reported 5.49 million openings. Hiring dropped to 5.1 million, whereas the number of separations decreased to 3 million. However, the data suggest that hiring is unlikely to rise in the upcoming months. The biggest declined in job openings occurred in professional and business services, which includes accountants and engineers as well as temp workers. The number of job vacancies advanced 2% over the past year, while hiring decreased 2.2%, suggesting that employers face difficulties in finding skilled workers. The following gap and low unemployment rate may force businesses to raise pay to attract workers. Other data released on the same day by the EIA showed crude oil inventories fell 2.4 million barrels in the week ending December 2, whereas analysts expected a fall of 1.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's declined of 0.9 million. After the release, WTI futures fell 1.4% to $50.20, while Brent crude declined 1% to $53.38.
Corporate lending in the Euro zone advanced at the fastest pace since June 2011 in October, while the total amount of currency in circulation fell, official figures showed on Monday. According to the European Central Bank, lending to firms rose 2.1% on a monthly basis in October, the fastest pace in more than five years, following the preceding month's gain of 2.0%. Lending to households climbed 1.8% on an annual basis in the same month, unchanged from the September reading, whereas market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 1.9%. A measure of the money supply in the region, known as M3, grew 4.4% year-over-year in October, down from the prior month's 5.1% and below the 5.0% increase market forecast. The Central bank's policymakers are widely expected to extend their quantitative easing program by six months at their next meeting on December 8. According to the OECD's latest forecasts published on Monday, the Euro zone is set to grow 1.7% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2016, both figures were revised up from the September estimates despite the post-Brexit uncertainties. Moreover, later on the same day, Mario Draghi said in his speech to the European Parliament that the economy managed to overcome major challenges caused by Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
Upcoming fundamentals: Euro zone minimal bid rate; ECB press conference; US unemployment claims
Market movers could be of fundamental nature on Thursday, as the Euro zone minimal bid rate at 12:45 GMT and the ECB press conference at 13:30 could shake up the Euro at the same time as the US unemployment claims come out, which could spill some uncertainty into the US currency market.
Euro still focused on senior channel
Daily Chart: EUR/USD opened in line with the senior channel expectations, targeting the upper trend-line at 1.0795 with a red candle. Immediate resistance lies at 1.0772 and there are no more obstacles that could potentially prohibit tests of the targeted level. The pair has managed to push through the area already, but a close below would likely mean EUR/USD being in the red zone on Friday, as it gives in to the channel bound. The floor is currently set at 1.0722/0709 over the last couple of days, and could come into play on Friday.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows the rate has exited the channel up pattern that was supposed to lead up to the senior channel trend-line, to take up a steeper motion north. Following a retracement of the broken trend-line, EUR/USD has neared to senior channel around 1.0787 and could test it today. Current movements are capped by the weekly R2 at 1.0772 and another hitch might come at 1.0782 where the upper Bollinger Band rests. Demand pressures stemming from the junior channel-55-hour SMA cluster at1.0745/42 are likely to serve as the ultimate floor for Thursday.
Hourly chart
Sentiment remains bullish, contrasts pending orders
SWFX traders have slightly mitigated their optimism, as 51% of open positions are now long, down from 52% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, pending orders are bearish, as 63% of commands are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders slightly improved their bullish outlook, as 56.37 % of open EUR/USD positions were long on Thursday morning, compared to 55.53% on Wednesday. In addition, SAXO Bank clients have roughly maintained the previous sentiment with 43.38% of all positions being bought, compared to 43.66% on the previous trading session.