- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 63% to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at the 1.0553 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will fall
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: All quiet on Thursday
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
On Monday 21 of November ECB president Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.
Upcoming fundamentals: No major data releases on Thursday
There are no scheduled data releases for the next 24 hours, which could majorly affect the direction of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. However, there are small data releases, which might put in perspective the economic strength of certain countries. German Gfk Consumer Climate is set to be released at 12:00 GMT. At 14:00 GMT Belgian NBB Business Climate will be released.
EUR/USD finally drops below 1.05
Daily Chart: The common European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Thursday morning, as the currency exchange rate fluctuated above the 1.0520 mark. Previously, on Wednesday finally occurred the fall of the Euro, which was expected for a long time, as the rate fell to the combined support level of the 2015 December and 2015 April low levels near the 1.0520 level. However, the Euro is positioned to continue falling, as not only the markets increasingly speak about EUR/USD parity, but also the technical indicators forecast a fall for today.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the rate began to decline after being stopped and afterwards pushed lower by the cluster of significance located from 1.0622 to 1.0637 around 12:00 GMT on Wednesday. However, the big push by the US Dollar against the Euro occurred when the US Durable Goods Orders data was released at 13:30 GMT, and the increase of the core orders was five times larger than the forecasted one.
Hourly chart
Bullish traders in majority
Traders remain bullish, as 57% of open positions were long on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, 63% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders remain bullish, as 65.12% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Thursday, which are almost unchanged, if compared to 65.86% long positions on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank clients have slightly increased their bullish outlook, as 58.48% open positions are long, compared to 56.05% during the previous trading session.