- 59% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The pair broke the two-month channel last week
- USD/JPY entered a strong channel up on the hourly chart
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: None
Donald Trump's election as the 45th president of the United States sent shock waves across the world. His victory allowed the Republic Party to maintain the Senate, as well as win the White House. According to the final figures, in the presidential race of 2016 Trump won 276 electoral votes. Despite the post-election uncertainty, the US economy is set to continue its expansion at a rate of 2%. Moreover, analysts still expect a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December, as markets are likely to stabilize ahead of the monetary policy meeting. Once the news broke, the Mexican Peso dropped more than 13%, hitting its overnight low, whereas the price of gold advanced 4.9% to $1,337.4 per ounce. European stock markets fell around 2.3%, compared to a 9% plunge after Britain's decision to leave the European Union. However, European stocks managed to finish higher, with the FTSE rising around 1% after falling 2% at the start of the trading day.
The US economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2014 in the Q3 of 2016 amid higher exports and a rise in inventory investment, official data revealed on Friday. According to the US Department of Commerce, the economy grew 2.9% in the Q3, following the preceding quarter's 1.4% growth and surpassing the 2.5% pick up market forecast. It was the strongest expansion since the Q3 of 2014. However, the stronger than expected figures are unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve's views, as it is more focused on employment and inflation. US exports jumped 10% in the Q3, the largest increase since the Q4 of 2013, contributing 0.83% to GDP growth. The Q3 rise in exports was led by soybeans and analysts suggest that the momentum could be lost in the Q4. Inventory accumulation by businesses increased $12.6 billion in the reported quarter, contributing 0.61% to GDP growth. Investment in nonresidential structures advanced 5.4% in the Q3, the biggest gain since the Q2 of 2014, compared to the prior quarter's 2.1% drop. Meanwhile, business spending on equipment declined 2.7%, falling for the fourth consecutive month. Separately, the Labor Department said the Employment Cost Index remained unchanged at 0.6% in the Q3, in line with analysts' expectations
No upcoming Fundamentals
Governor Kuroda's speech left markets intact at 1:00 GMT, along with a low impact revised Japanese industrial production announcement at 4:30. The revision came in positive, causing almost no surprise reaction, as the Greenback managed to fasten its gains, outperforming the safe haven currency.
USD/JPY climbs into strong bullish territory
Daily chart: Following the inability for USD/JPY to make critical moves on Friday, the pair opened on a positive note, distancing itself from the 38.20% (2015-2016 dive) Fibonacci level, which it had addressed on Friday. A gain is likely to be cut by the 108.18 yen level, where the monthly R2 lies, shifting risk to 108.70 in case broken. Significant supply will limit movements underneath, clustering the monthly R1 and 200-day SMA to battle the weakness. We lean in favor of a close in green, due to the latest fifth wave failure on the hourly chart.Daily chart
Hourly chart: USD/JPY traded consistently bullish, sticking to the bottom trend-line of the hourly channel at first, but then distancing itself to show even more upward momentum. The pair will tap the 108.10 level before the monthly R2 cuts gains at 108.18 in the short run. A break above will leave 108.70 as the last supply zone before 109.00 psychological level where the upper trend-line of the channel could send the pair packing.
Hourly chart
Trader sentiment unchanged
OANDA traders continued to show a similar trend with 58.96% of traders being bullish along with 57.54 of long positions among SAXA bank traders.