- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 62% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at the 1.0895 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will fall
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: French Prelim GDP; German Prelim CPI; French Consumer Spending; French Prelim CPI; Spanish Flash CPI; Spanish Flash GDP; US Advance GDP; US Employment Cost Index; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
New orders for US manufactured durable goods dropped unexpectedly last month amid lower orders for computers and electronic products. According to the US Department of Commerce, new orders for capital goods fell 0.1% in September, the most since February, after rising 0.1% in August, whereas analysts had expectations for a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, orders for core durable goods advanced 0.2% in the same month, following August's 0.2% decline and meeting analysts' forecasts. Other data released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed the Pending Home Sales Index climbed 1.5% to 110.0 in September after falling 2.5% to 108.4 in the preceding month, while economists anticipated an acceleration of 1.2%. Moreover, the Index jumped 2.4% compared with the same month a year ago. In the meantime, the Department of Labor said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 258,000 in the week ended October 21, compared to the previous week's revised up 261,000 claims. That marked 86 consecutive weeks of claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Also, the number of continuing claims declined to 2.04 million in the week ending October 15.
Oil prices jumped above the $50 level on Wednesday as US crude oil inventories dropped unexpectedly last week. According to the Energy Information Administration's report, domestic crude stockpiles fell 0.6 million barrels in the week ended October 21, following the preceding week's 5.2 million barrel decline, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 0.7 million barrels during the reported period. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute's preliminary report released on Tuesday suggested a 4.8 million barrel rise for the same week. Crude oil stocks usually rise at this time of year as the summer driving season ends and refineries enter the autumn turnaround season. The EIA also said that gasoline stocks dropped 2 million barrels, whereas analysts had expectations for a 1 million barrel decline. Moreover, distillate stockpiles were down 3.4 million barrels, surpassing the 1.4 million barrel drop forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: Loads of data with only one notable release
During Friday's trading session a lot of data releases are set. However, most of them will not have that necessary volatility, which some traders are looking for to rake in a profit. The time to be at the monitors is at 12:30 GMT, as the US Advance GDP will be released, combined with the US Employment Cost Index. Moreover, there is an additional data release set to be out in the US, as the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published at 14:00 GMT. However, there will be some releases from the European Union, which always bombards the markets with many minor data releases due to the way the statistics are gathered in the Union. French Preliminary GDP was released at 5:30 GMT and the French Consumer Spending and Preliminary CPI will be out at 6:45 GMT. Later on, at 7:00 GMT the Spanish Flash CPI and Flash GDP will be published. Moreover, the German Preliminary CPI is set to be suddenly released at some time during today's session
EUR/USD in a one more attempt at resistance on Friday
Daily chart: The common European currency continued training below the post Brexit low level of 1.0912 against the US Dollar during Friday morning. Previously, for the whole week the currency exchange rate traded just below the Brexit low level. However, there were some discrepancies, as on Wednesday and Thursday the rate was slowly moving higher and even reached above not only the Brexit low, but the weekly PP and monthly S3 at 1.0929. As the rate failed to break past those resistance levels, it is likely that the pair will move lower eventually.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD reveals another attempt to break through the resistance put up by the weekly PP, monthly S3 and the 200-hour SMA around the level of 1.0929. As usual during this week, the Euro failed to break resistance against the Greenback and once more retreated only to be propped up by the 100-hour SMA at 1.0891. It is most likely that another failed attempt is set to occur soon. Although, starting next week the levels of significance will change, and the resistance might fade away.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
Traders remain bullish on the pair, as 59% of open positions are long. In the meantime, pending commands have become increasingly bearish, as 62% of set up orders were to sell on Friday morning, compared to Thursday's 58%.
OANDA traders remain bullish on Friday, as 59.58% of open EUR/USD positions are long. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank clients remain bearish neutral, as open short positions now add up to 50.60%, compared to 50.46% short positions during the previous trading session.