- 56% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal recently formed a short term ascending channel
- The 1,250 level provided support for a week
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Advance GDP; US Employment Cost Index; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
New orders for US manufactured durable goods dropped unexpectedly last month amid lower orders for computers and electronic products. According to the US Department of Commerce, new orders for capital goods fell 0.1% in September, the most since February, after rising 0.1% in August, whereas analysts had expectations for a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, orders for core durable goods advanced 0.2% in the same month, following August's 0.2% decline and meeting analysts' forecasts. Other data released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed the Pending Home Sales Index climbed 1.5% to 110.0 in September after falling 2.5% to 108.4 in the preceding month, while economists anticipated an acceleration of 1.2%. Moreover, the Index jumped 2.4% compared with the same month a year ago. In the meantime, the Department of Labor said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 258,000 in the week ended October 21, compared to the previous week's revised up 261,000 claims. That marked 86 consecutive weeks of claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Also, the number of continuing claims declined to 2.04 million in the week ending October 15.
Oil prices jumped above the $50 level on Wednesday as US crude oil inventories dropped unexpectedly last week. According to the Energy Information Administration's report, domestic crude stockpiles fell 0.6 million barrels in the week ended October 21, following the preceding week's 5.2 million barrel decline, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 0.7 million barrels during the reported period. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute's preliminary report released on Tuesday suggested a 4.8 million barrel rise for the same week. Crude oil stocks usually rise at this time of year as the summer driving season ends and refineries enter the autumn turnaround season. The EIA also said that gasoline stocks dropped 2 million barrels, whereas analysts had expectations for a 1 million barrel decline. Moreover, distillate stockpiles were down 3.4 million barrels, surpassing the 1.4 million barrel drop forecast. After the release, Brent futures were seen trading $0.33 lower at $50.46 per barrel by 14:35 GMT on the New York Stock Exchange, whereas West Texas Intermediate futures were seen trading $0.06 higher at $50.02 by the same time.
Upcoming fundamentals: US GDP
During Friday's trading session a lot of data releases are set. However, most of them will not have that necessary volatility, which some traders are looking for to rake in a profit. The time to be at the monitors is at 12:30 GMT, as the US Advance GDP will be released, combined with the US Employment Cost Index. Moreover, there is an additional data release set to be out in the US, as the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published at 14:00 GMT.
Gold remains stuck
Daily chart: The yellow metal slightly surged on Friday morning, as it was in a yet another rebound from the weekly PP, which is located at 1,263.46. For the whole week the metal has been, as indicated by some analysts, hugging the 200-day SMA. However, for any financial instrument this is a normal occurrence time to time. What needs to be noted and has been noted by Dukascopy is that there are other levels of significance, which have actually locked down the bullion near the 200-day SMA, which is a part of the resistance cluster standing in the metal's way.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows, that in the last 24 hours the volatility of the metal has died. Specifically, it is almost nonexistent. There is a very slow surge going on with minor fluctuations. For example, the upper and lower Bollinger bands are only five dollars apart one from another.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment still bullish
During the last 24 hours OANDA open long positions have decreased to 72.61%, compared to 75.23% on Wednesday. SAXO bank traders continue bouncing in indecision, as 63.15% of traders are long, compared to 68.64% during yesterday's trading. However, the difference might just be the part of traders, who are trading the small volatility that is left, as it is more or less easy to predict now.