- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 53% to sell
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at the 1.1137 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will decline
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; EU ZEW Economic Sentiment;
US employment growth slowed unexpectedly last month, official data revealed on Friday. According to the US Department of Labor, US private companies created 156,000 new jobs in September, while market analysts expected the economy to add 171,000 jobs in the reported month. Meanwhile, the previous month's reading was revised up to 167,000 from the originally reported gain of 151,000. Although the report suggested the economic expansion was still remaining on track, the chances of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next month decreased markedly. However, the odds of a December rate remained quite high, despite the disappointing, despite today's disappointing jobs report. The unemployment rate grew to 5.0% in September, as more Americans re-joined the labor force. Average hourly wages rose to an annualized rate of 2.6% last month, in line with analysts' expectations, whereas the average work week grew 0.1 to 34.4 hours. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes part-time workers and people who stopped searching for jobs, held steady at 9.7% in September. Professional and job services created 67,000, health care and restaurants added 33,000 and 30,000 jobs, respectively, contributing most to the September job growth.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in 43 years, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ending October 1, compared to the preceding week's reading of 254,000, while market analysts anticipated a slight rise to 255,000 in the reported period. It was the 83rd consecutive week of initial claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Furthermore, the four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 2,500 to 253,000 last week, the lowest level since December of 1973. The data also showed the number of continuing claims decreased 6,000 to 2.058 million in the week ended September 24, while its four-week moving average declined 21,000 to 2.095 million. Meanwhile, analysts expect Friday's NFP report to announce 171,000 new jobs for September and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Immediately after the release of initial jobless claims, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies, trading at 1.1179 against the Euro, 1.2641 against the British Pound and 103.89 against the Japanese Yen, while its Index advanced to 96.44.
Upcoming fundamentals: ZEW Economic Sentiment
Today the EUR/USD currency exchange rate might be affected by data coming from the EU. Namely, it will be German data, which might affect the rate, as the German and common European Union ZEW Economic Sentiment indices will be released at 9:00 GMT. However, the data has a history of not even punching the rate one or another side more than it moves on its own without the data being released.
EUR/USD once more touches lower trend line
Daily chart: The common European currency slightly fell against the US Dollar on Tuesday morning, as the currency exchange rate moved lower and touched the channel down pattern's lower trend line at 1.1121. Moreover, the trend line is also supported by the first weekly support level at 1.1121 and the lower Bollinger band at 1.1118. This is the third time that the currency exchange rate touches the trend line. It is most likely that the pair is set to soon rebound and begin a medium term surge up to the pattern's resistance line.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows an unopposed fall of the Euro, as the Greenback continued to gain strength in the past 24 hours. However, that changed most recently, as at 2:00 GMT the currency pair hit the support provided by the weekly S1 at 1.112. Moreover, at 1.1223 level the channel down pattern's lower trend line is located at. Although, after the rebound, the rate moved up to the monthly S1 and there it reversed its movement most recently to confirm the before mentioned trend line once more.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish
SWFX trader sentiment and pending orders are identical, as both of them are 53% bearish.
OANDA traders have become almost neutral on Tuesday, as 49.97% of open EUR/USD positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients remain bearish. However, the bearishness is lower than previously, as open short positions now add up to 58.52% compared to 63.98% during the previous trading session.