- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 69% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at the 1.1222 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: EU CPI Flash Estimate; EU Core CPI Flash Estimate; US Core PCE Price Index; US Personal Spending; US Chicago PMI; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of claimants jumped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 254,000 in the week ended September 24 after touching the lowest level since mid-July in the previous seven days. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated an increase to 260,000 claims in the week ending September 24, following the preceding week's 251,000. Filings for US unemployment benefits remained below the 300,000 level for the 82nd consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973. The four week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 2,250 to 256,000 last week. Furthermore, so-called continuing claims dropped 46,000 to 2.062 million in the week ended September 17. According to the final Q2 GDP print released by the Department of Commerce the US economy expanded at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the Q2 after growing 0.8% in the Q1. Economists expected the Q2 GDP to increase 1.3%. The US Dollar Index advanced to 95.49 from 95.42 ahead of the release.
New orders for US manufactured core durable goods dropped less than expected last month, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, total new orders for durable goods were unchanged on a monthly basis in August, following the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 3.6%, whereas market analysts expected new orders to drop 1.0% in the eight month of the year. August's flat reading was mainly driven by a 21.9% drop in demand for civilian aircraft. Excluding goods like motor vehicles and machinery, durable goods orders declined 0.4% in August, while economic desks penciled in a fall of 0.5%. The previous month's rise in core new orders was revised down to 1.3% from the originally reported 1.5%. Other data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories in the United States fell 1.9 million barrels in the week ended September 23, whereas analysts anticipated a rise of 2.4 million barrels after the preceding week's 6.2 million-barrel drop. After the release, WTI crude rose 1.1% to trade at $45.18 per barrel, whereas Brent crude advanced 1.5% to trade at $46.66 on the NYSE.
Upcoming fundamentals: EU CPI and various US data
This Friday is set to be an interesting day with various minor data releases. First off all in Europe CPI Flash Estimate data will be published at 9:00 GMT. The data is set to be available on a year-to-year basis, combined with the Core CPI data. The strength of the US Dollar during the day will be dictated by various data publications, as at 12:30 GMT US Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending data will be out and available on a monthly basis. Afterwards, at 13:45 GMT the Chicago PMI index will be released, and 15 minutes later, at 14:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be available.
EUR/USD slowly treading higher on Friday
Daily chart: On early Friday morning the common European currency once more confirmed the channel up pattern's against the US Dollar lower trend line and moved higher. In general, it can be seen that for the past three consecutive trading sessions the currency exchange rate has been slowly moving northwards while experiencing high volatility, as it rebounded many times against the channel's support line. It is most likely, that the rate will continue these fluctuations and end today's trading higher than the opening price of 1.1222.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that the currency exchange rate began to fall on early Thursday morning until it reached a support cluster made up from the 200-hour SMA at 1.1205 and the weekly PP at 1.1201. The pair rebounded at the support cluster and surged to 1.1249 level by 16:00 GMT. However, there it changed the direction and fell once more to the 200-hour SMA at 1.1206 by 18:00 GMT. Moreover, after a slight rebound, the currency pair hit the 200-hour SMA once more at 00:00, from where it rebounded, and it has been trading slightly above the SMA since then.
Hourly chart
Trader sentiment remains unchanged
SWFX market sentiment remains unchanged for the sixth consecutive trading session, as 60% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending commands are 69% to sell the European currency.
OANDA bearish trader sentiment decreased on Friday, as 55.76% of open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bearish stance, as open short positions now add up to 66.73% compared to 67.51% during the previous trading session.