- There is no discernible difference between the amounts of buy (51%) and sell (49%) orders
- 68% of traders are bulls
- 200-hour SMA is at 102.60
- Support trendline is at 101.30
- Two thirds of traders forecast stronger Dollar
- Upcoming events on Wednesday: US Import Prices, Crude Oil Inventories, Revised Industrial Production
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, official data revealed on Thursday. According to the Labor Department, initial jobless claims fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 in the week ended September 3, touching the lowest level since mid-July and following the preceding week's reading of 263,000. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 264,000 filings in the reported period. Last week's numbers market the 79th consecutive week of initial jobless claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. There were no special factors influencing last week's claims data; however, jobless claims for Virginia, New Mexico, Alabama, Minnesota, Hawaii and Puerto Rico were estimated amid the Labor Day celebrated on Monday.
Furthermore, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 1,750 to 261,250 during the same week. Meanwhile, the number of continuing jobless claims dropped 7,000 to 2.14 million in the week ending August 27, whereas the four-week moving average of continuing claims decreased 4,000 to 2.15 million. The claims data together with the latest JOLTS report suggest that the trend in employment growth remains strong.
Tuesday and Wednesday to be quiet
There are no important events for USD/JPY today, and there will be barely a few releases able to impact the pair tomorrow. On Wednesday we will learn whether the import prices were able to grow, or as the forecasts suggest - decline by 0.1% after increasing the same amount in July.USD/JPY above 100 but below 103 yen
The latest attempt of USD/JPY to recover was denied by 102.70, where the weekly pivot point merges with the 55-day SMA, and we are again below the monthly PP. Accordingly, the price is likely to keep falling until it encounters 100.80/80. There the US Dollar will meet a strong demand area, represented by the monthly S1, and even more importantly, the 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 up-move. For the time being we are waiting which of the key levels (psychological 100 yen or the eight-month down-trend at 103 yen) is going to give in first.Daily chart
In the hourly chart USD/JPY proved to be unable to keep trading within the recently established channel and closed below 102.50. The ceiling is now the 200-hour SMA at 102.60, while support trendline that emerged in the second half of August is seen at 101.30.
Hourly chart
Yesterday's dip in the share of long positions was quickly reversed, and now 68% of traders are bulls, just like last Tuesday. Concerning the orders, there is no discernible difference between the amounts of buy (51%) and sell (49%) commands.
In the meantime, OANDA traders are rapidly losing their optimism with respect to the United States Dollar. Since the latest report the share of longs at Canada-based broker has fallen from 66 to 62%. The long-short ratio at Saxo Bank appears to be a little more stable, with the percentage of bulls at 64% (63% yesterday).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Two thirds of traders forecast stronger Dollar
Traders are generally bullish on USD/JPY. Considering that the currency pair is currently trading circa 102 yen, two thirds of them expect the US Dollar to become more expensive in three months, and the rest expect the Greenback to become cheaper. The average forecast for December 8 is 103.88, while the most likely price interval is considered to be 108.00-109.50, which was chosen by 17% of the surveyed.